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Photo: AFP
Herzog and Livni. An image makeover is not a viable election strategy.
Photo: AFP

This is not a Bibi-Buji popularity contest

Op-ed: Number of likes each party leader gets will not decide outcome of the 2015 elections; a focus on security will mean success for Netanyahu, while a socioeconomic push will propel Herzog into PM's office.

The Labor Party list, selected in the party primary earlier this week, did not present new candidates or deal-breakers. Will the undecided voters cast their ballot for Labor because Stav Shaffir and Itzik Shmuly are in the top five? Not necessarily, just as they do not prefer Likud because Israel Katz and Miri Regev were in the top five. Public opinion is still apparently focused on party leaders Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu and Isaac "Buji" Herzog.

 

The Social Media Branding company in recent days published data showing the Facebook activity of Israeli party leaders in December. Compared to the 1,125,000 Facebook likes that the prime minister boasts, the leader of the opposition has just 54,000. Both Naftali Bennett, with 388,000 likes, and Yair Lapid, with 372,000, vastly surpass him.

 

An online popularity contest is of course no replacement for an actual election. The former can be manipulated by buying likes abroad, via professional companies. Both Labor and Kadima have argued in the past that Netanyahu's site managers use this method to reach the inflated figures they boast. Nor does the section of the population who are Facebook users characterize the real intentions of voters. Many adults are not members of social networks, making it an unworthy indicator of real political tends.

 

Even with these caveats in mind, it is important to explore the massive gap that has opened up between Herzog and the other major party leaders in the world of social media. US marketing expert Scott Cook defined the revolution that began in the Internet Age: “A brand is no longer what we tell the consumer it is – it is what consumers tell each other it is." What does that mean? That Herzog is still not seen as a political brand. He is not someone with clear image recognition, whom public opinion is compelled to pursue, whatever he says and does.

 

Herzog and Netanyahu: The issues will decide who wins in March. (Photos: AFP and EPA) (Photos: AFP, EPA)
Herzog and Netanyahu: The issues will decide who wins in March. (Photos: AFP and EPA)

 

Even so, the Zionist Camp, the Labor and Kadima hybrid, is seen winning a similar amount to the Likud in the polls. This means that there is quite a large section of the public that supports its union, even without being overly excited by its leadership. Livni also lags far behind Netanyahu in terms of likes. A public campaign that focuses on Herzog and Livni could well miss the mark.

 

Neither is new on the political scene, and an image makeover is not an effective strategy over a three-month period. What remains are the ideas that distinguish between the left and center and the right – on society, defense and diplomatic policy. Herzog clearly leads on economic and social issues, but he and his leadership have difficulty making inroads on the two others. Terrorist attacks and the killing of Jews in France give Netanyahu a boost in support, as do the paranoia over Iran and Hamas that he is consistently feeding to the Israeli public.

 

Netanyahu won the 2013 elections because of the security agenda, which focused on the nuclear threat of then-Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Likud campaign machine is now asking, "Who do you want to fight Islamic terrorism – Buji and Tzipi or Bibi?" This is a political battlefield for which the once-ruling party has no answer.

 

So what can they do for the upcoming elections? They should remain unexciting but stable. It's been said the opposition does not win, but the government loses. If Netanyahu succeeds in making security the hot-button issue by March, he will win. If the major topic reverts to socio-economic woes, the Labor Party will be able to set up a bloc, with Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Moshe Kahlon, facilitating the establishment of a different government.

 

Herzog's battle is not against Netanyahu. Not one single Likud voter will switch sides for him. The number of Facebook likes that each gets will not determine the election outcome. It could be that this time, the election will be decided by the personality, not because of the person.

 


פרסום ראשון: 01.18.15, 00:25
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