A government in thrall to backbenchers
Op-ed: A coalition based on 61 MKs can only survive thanks to prime minister's authority and fear of elections; factions making up Netanyahu's fourth government fear elections, but don't have much respect for prime minister's authority.
A government based on 61 Knesset members is not Netanyahu's government. It is Likud MK Oren Hazan's government. When he pleases, he will hold it above the water; when he pleases, he will drown it in the sink. It depends on the mood he wakes up in or on who annoys him in the afternoon.
Hazan won't be alone of course. Bezalel Smotrich of the Bayit Yehudi faction will find it difficult to get up and vote if the prime minister's latest speech won't sound Jewish enough to him. And what will the left-wing members of Moshe Kahlon's faction say when they find out what kind of tranquilizer the coalition chairman gave Hazan, or Smotrich, or other lawmakers? When the coalition only has 61 MKs, every slip of the tongue sparks a row, every sigh announces a crisis.
There were governments in Israel which lasted for a long time with a majority of only one vote, and there were even minority governments. What kept them alive was the authority projected by the prime minister and the fear of elections.
The ingredients of the government which is about to be established have the fear of elections, but don't have much respect for the prime minister's authority. They demonstrated their disrespect during the coalition negotiations, when they got him to make major concessions in terms of money, legislation, authority, governability – all the things he has preached throughout his political career. It was a clearance sale. And what for? For an Oren Hazan government.
Avigdor Lieberman waited patiently until the very last minute, and then delivered his own blow. He had a simple choice following his failure in the elections: To either be appointed foreign minister in the next government or go to the opposition. A foreign minister, he could have continued traveling around the world, to the capitals which are prepared to welcome him, and come to terms with the fact that this will be his party's last term. Next time, it won't even pass the election threshold.
There is no certainty that the party he established will survive in the opposition, but at least it has a chance: It will be the only party to the right of the new government. It will have a significant rhetoric space. It will be able to tease the new government repeatedly on diplomatic, military and civil issues, on the concessions to the haredim and the compromise with the Bayit Yehudi members.
In fact, Lieberman had an even simpler choice: To either go to the opposition in two years, or go to the opposition now. My guess is that the timing has to do with the emotional side: Lieberman wanted to get back at Netanyahu, and get back at him now.
