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Bashar Assad - under pressure

With Assad increasingly under pressure, what lies ahead for Syria?

Sources connected to the Syrian regime admit pressure is growing, but say the Syrian government is certain its army - with help from its allies - can protect critical territories.

The consistent advances of extremist organizations in Syria have now pushed embattled President Bashar Assad to the point where military pressure on his regime is the heaviest since the beginning of the civil war, four years ago.

 

 

Losses in the north, east and south to Islamist groups, including Islamic State and the al-Nusra Front (the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda), will test Assad's grip on western parts of his country which have now become especially vital for his survival. After losing Palmyra, a symbolic and a militarily strategic city, and almost all of Idlib province, it seems that he is moving his forces westward, towards Damascus, Homs, Hama and the coast.

 

Sources associated with the Damascus regime admit that the pressure is rising, but say that the Syrian government is sure that its army can protect the critical territories with the help of its allies. Assad still dominates several areas in Syria, but these are also diminishing. His decision to keep forces in places like Deir ez-Zor, Al-Hasakah and Aleppo, suggests that he is still interested in maintaining a nationwide presence and that he rejects the de facto partition of Syria.

 

 

"The fall of Palmyra to the terrorists is a bad sign, and contributed to the climate of frustration, but it will not change the balance of power in Syria", Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem said Tuesday. He admitted that while the situation is not simple, they are trying to project an air of business as usual.

 

"The Syrian regime has capitals and big cities. There is an attempt (on the part of the rebels - RK) to improve their geographical location in the hope that it will gain them more bargaining chips in any future solution. But what happened will not bring them bargaining chips," claimed Qassem, who maintains that commentators do not pay enough attention to the achievements of the Syrian army.

 

Allies to the bitter end

Sources close to the government say that Assad is confident that he will remain standing with support from Iran, his most powerful ally, who said Tuesday that it would stand by him until the very end.

 

"We will stand alongside the Syrian regime and the Syrian people to the end of the road," pledged Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday, in a meeting with Syrian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Jihad al-Laham, who is visting Tehran. Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran, is also now, more than ever, present in Syria.

 

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Likewise, Assad still believes that the West will ultimately see him as a partner against Islamic State, a change not on the horizon now, but in his eyes is inevitable because of the risk that jihadists will totally take control of Syria..

 

"This summer will be hard on the ground, but no red lines will be crossed," said a source involved in what is happening in Damascus, who asked to remain anonymous. Assad has survived such pressure in the past, especially at the end of 2012 when the West believed that he was on the verge of falling. But the difference now is that the extremists are stronger, whereas the Syrian army has been weakened after four years of war.

 

Assad has also lost the Shiite militias who fought alongside Syrian forces. They returned home to fight against IS, when it conquered Mosul and other Iraqi cities. The sudden advances also added to the military pressure Iran faces in Syria and Iraq.

 

Islamic State flag flies on the shell of an aircraft at Palmyra airport in Syria
Islamic State flag flies on the shell of an aircraft at Palmyra airport in Syria

 

The extremist groups in northern and southern Syria burst forth as the most dynamic force in the war in recent months. They are better organized and are better armed than they ever were and there are those who are of the opinion that they have received new support from Assad's regional enemies.

 

"Of course the recent developments have worked against the regime, but it appears that the regime's supporters, Iran in particular, have increased their support in an effort to reverse these developments," said Noah Bonsey, a senior analyst in the Crisis Group international think tank.

 

"It's too early to say what will be the achievements of the current escalation," Bonsey claims. "The regime is still trying to hold on to its territories as best it can".

 

On Wednesday, Lebanese newspaper As-Safir reported that more than 20,000 Iraqi, Lebanese and Iranian fighters entered Idlib province in an attempt to organize a counterattack. The newspaper said that General Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, had arrived at the Jorin region on the outskirts of Latakia, along with units that took part in the fighting in Iraq and wrested control of the Salah al-Din province in central Iraq from IS.

 

Where is the actual support?

Public concern over losing the war once again returned to the headlines in areas controlled by the regime, in which most of the Syrian population lives. Consequently, the Syrian pound is weakening. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem has had to deal with tough questions during a press conference in Damascus last week, among them whether Syria is in fact a divided country.

 

One journalist pointed out to him that the statements of support from Iran and Russia have not managed to stop the extremists' advance.

 

"Many are asking why this support is not visible on the ground", the journalist remarked.

 

"The question certainly arises", Muallem said. "Our relationship with Russia and Iran is deeper than people think," he added.

 

The IDF believes that the Syrian army has almost ceased to exist, while Hezbollah is investing thousands of its fighters in Syria. Others describe the situation as less grave, and say that the military is still able to defend areas controlled by the Assad government.

 

A rebel fighter in Idlib holds a Syrian flag (Photo: Reuters) (Photo: Reuters)
A rebel fighter in Idlib holds a Syrian flag (Photo: Reuters)

 

Tactical retreat

Assad is still determined to hold on to energy facilities that he needs to supply electricity to areas under his control, including oil and gas fields east of Homs. Last week he sent Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi to visit the Shaar oil field, which had been seized by Islamic State but has since been recaptured after fierce fighting.

 

The army and Hezbollah's offensive against the extremists, including the al-Nusra Front, in the Qalamoun mountain range north of Damascus, is also vital. One diplomat told Reuters that, "it will be difficult for armed groups to take control of Damascus, as it would be a battle not only for land but also for survival." According to him, Latakia on the coast and the province of Homs will be more difficult to protect.

 

The Syrian government sees the fall of Palmyra as a tactical loss but as a strategic gain, says Salam Zaharan, a Lebanese expert with contacts in Damascus. Palmyra's capture should encourage Washington to review its policy towards Syria, make Jordan pay more attention to the threat of IS, and coerce Iraq to cooperate with Syria.

 

According to Zaharan, Damascus is relying on Syria's jumping to the top of Iran's list of priorities the minute Tehran signs a nuclear agreement with the superpowers. But previous assessments according to which it will be impossible to defeat Assad because of its military power - especially its air force – are no longer valid. The extremists are building their momentum and have more and more new recruits.

 

"For every 100 regime casualties, another 100 new extremist recruits come", he said.

 


פרסום ראשון: 06.03.15, 12:31
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