A crack in the iceberg
Analysis: Netanyahu isn't stupid. He understands that Likud voters are moving in droves to other parties, that they are fed up with his conduct, preferences and his family's behavior. He realizes that if he fails to change his conduct immediately, he is finished.
There can be no dispute, however, about one thing: He must be doing something right. The poll published on Channel 2 News on Tuesday evening is nothing short of sensational: If elections were to be held today, Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid would become the largest party. And if the bill proposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to have the leader of the Knesset's largest faction form the government, is passed – Lapid would be prime minister.
Granted, it's just a poll and there are no elections on the horizon. And it's true that Netanyahu is a strong campaigner who is capable of turning the tables. And we can't ignore the fact that Lapid is mainly benefitting from the fall of Zionist Union Chairman Isaac Herzog. Nonetheless, Netanyahu definitely has cause for concern. A big crack has been discovered in this iceberg that has been leading us for seven years now.
Some believe it was the train crisis that led to this tectonic movement, and that it stands as proof that Netanyahu has made a big mistake in his conduct in the entire affair, that he has touched a particularly sensitive nerve in the Israeli public this time when he gave in to the ultra-Orthodox at the soldiers' expense, favoring Moshe Gafni and Yaakov Litzman's demands over the general public's needs. This time Netanyahu went against the people, and for that there is no forgiveness in the Likud.
But a survey conducted a week ago by Lapid's pollster Mark Mellman, even before the train crisis, including more than 1,000 respondents, showed the same results. It also showed a jump in Lapid's suitability to be prime minister.
And there's one more thing we should pay attention to: According to the Channel 2 poll, Lapid wins even without a security figure by his side. In Mellman's poll, which was not published, respondents were asked for their opinion on Lapid's list if it included a security personality, such as Gabi Ashkenazi, Benny Gantz or Moshe Ya'alon. The results were even higher for Yesh Atid and even lower for the Likud.
Since being elected prime minister in 2009, Netanyahu has yet to face a crisis like the one taking place right now, which has managed to anger such a large public. A political crisis that has turned into public revulsion, with such immediate, transparent results, reflected in the polls, which examined his reliability and conduct both vis-à-vis the transportation minister and the entire political system.
One can say that Lapid is profiting from Netanyahu's mistakes. That's inaccurate: Lapid, as I said, is mainly benefitting from the mass abandonment of Zionist Union voters. Likud voters are moving mainly to Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman's parties.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the communications last night between The Hague and Jerusalem, between the prime minister's hotel in the Netherlands and his residence on Balfour Street. The Netanyahu family had a difficult evening.
Netanyahu isn't stupid. He understands that Likud voters are moving in droves to other parties, that they are fed up with his conduct, with his preferences, with his family's behavior. He understands that he is on a crossroad, and that if he fails to change his conduct immediately – he is finished.
While on Sunday his paranoia focused on a member of his own party, a minister in his government who was suspected of a putsch for 24 hours, this weekend's anxieties will focus on Lapid, the man who has been going against the wind since the elections, ignoring the scorn and criticism, and gaining more and more Knesset seats. In other words, let's see if Netanyahu still wants to fire Transpiration Minister Yisrael Katz.
And Netanyahu knows what every politician knows: if he is not seen as the one who will bring victory, there will be an even greater abandonment in the Likud. And when that happens, he will be exposed to full internal party processes, including a demand for primary elections.
