Analysis / Goodbye, Gaza
The Cabinet's approval of the disengagement plan will write a new chapter in Mideast history
Since the 1967 Six Day War, no Israeli government has dared redraw the state's borders. On Sunday this is about to happen. The importance of this moment should not be belittled: A new chapter in Middle East history will be written in Sunday's government meeting in Jerusalem.
For close to 38 years, Israel has had a presence in the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria. No more. On Sunday, for the first time, target dates will be set to end the occupation. Evacuation orders signed this week by the prime minister and sent to every home in Gush Katif and in northern Samaria will sound the final chord of the Israeli occupation in these areas.
The government ministers understand this well. Many of them intend to raise their hands in favor of the evacuation. When this happens, they will set a precedent no government before them dared set: evacuation of settlements in exchange for a political solution with a Palestinian entity that will arise in the evacuated areas.
The government also votes Sunday on the route of the security barrier. In the south Mount Hebron area, the government of Israel will establish the fence next to the Green Line, while at the same time it will in effect annex the settlement blocs of Gush Etzion and Maa’leh Adumim. This route, even if government spokesmen deny it today, will determine the setting for Israel and the Palestinians to begin negotiations on a final peace settlement.
The evacuation begins in 150 days
If so, you can circle July 20, 2005 on your calendar. This date, 150 days from now, is when the evacuation will begin. According to a senior figure close to the prime minister, beginning from this date, the state of Israel will no longer be responsible for Israelis who infiltrate the areas designated for evacuation.
“If someone wants to live like Robinson Crusoe – without electricity and water, without health and education services – then he should try to stay there,” the source says.
Of the gang of Likud rebels who tried to tie down Sharon from inside the government, few remain. Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom returned from Europe after having internalized the ramifications on the international front of opposing the disengagement plan. As a result, Shalom rushed to announce over the weekend his support for evacuating the Gaza Strip.
Minister Limor Livnat, who learned the lesson of being linked to Netanyahu, did the same thing. Not only did her assessment change regarding the pain of evacuating settlers from their homes, but so did her desire to rattle prime minister's chair.
Will Netanyhau say 'I told you so'?
But Benjamin Netanyahu announced he will stand with those against the disengagement, claiming that without a national referendum the withdrawal will likely lead to civil war. Sharon is not surprised by his finance minister’s move. Advisors to the prime minister believe Netanyhau decided on the move as a signal that the right-wing has someone to talk to in the government.
So if the evacuation is implemented with exhcanges of fire between law enforcement authorities and citizens opposed to the evacuation, Netanyhau can say, I told you so.
On the other hand, if it turns out the disengagement is indeed an historic step marking the start of reconciliation - or more accurately a tolerable arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians - it will be Sharon who can stand before his party and say: Let me lead the Likud in the upcoming elections so I can finish the process.
Either way, there is no reason to disparage the difficulties experienced by Likud ministers in making a decision being for this vote. Today they stand before a crossroads in which there is only a left-land turn – and this is toward giving up the dream of the Greater Land of Israel.
-Shimon Schiffer is a senior diplomatic affairs corresponent for Yedioth Ahronoth.
