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Photo: Reuters
Doesn't even pretend to be open-minded. Ahmadinejad
Photo: Reuters

Analysis/ Disturbing surprise

Ahmadinejad’s victory in Iranian presidential elections catches Israel, West off guard

The surprising election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad serves as grim testimony to the fact we are not familiar enough with the goings on in Iran.

 

The surprise in itself is a very troublesome "mishap," as Iran is Israel’s primary strategic threat, and a situation in which the election of a certain president comes as a surprise to Israel and the West cannot be tolerated.

 

Although most Israeli academics and intelligence establishment officials predicted the elections would end the “reformist” era in Iran and that the conservatives would gain control, they too had not foreseen the amount of support an anonymous, extreme conservatist who wants to restore Iran to the early days of Khomeini's Islamic revolution would be able to attract.

 

Ahmadinejad subscribes to the doctrine that portrays Israel as a “little devil” that must be annihilated. As opposed to Rafsanjani, he doesn’t even pretend to be more open-minded.

 

Hizbullah to intensify efforts

 

The new regime in Iran will adopt a more extreme stance toward the Israeli-Palestinian strife; meaning, efforts to undermine Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’ position and erase any attempt at advancing peace between Israel and the PA will be enhanced.

 

Iran will increase its support of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and any other organization that aims to thwart any peace agreement, as well as intensify its efforts to infiltrate Arab-Israeli extremist groups and continue its subversion and espionage methods in Israel.

 

The ongoing Iranian support of Hizbullah was expected, but the group’s more extreme stance regarding activity along the northern border will become more dominant, as terror organizations such as the “Revolutionary Guards” will become even stronger.

 

It may not happen tomorrow morning, but this is the general direction.

 

Iran is dangerous to the world due to the connection between its radical regime and its constant efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. This connection is now strengthened.

 

No more illusions

 

The chance of removing this regime through popular struggle, velvet revolutions and demonstrations is non-existent in the near future.

 

How did we miss the processes Iranian society was going through?

 

And if we did miss it, perhaps we are missing other critical issues, such as how advanced Iran's nuclear program is? Maybe they possess an alternate route to acquiring nuclear capabilities that is unfamiliar to Israel and the West?

 

So far the Americans have given the European Union leeway to conduct negotiations with Iran on the freezing of its uranium-enrichment activities. Toward the end of July, Germany, France, and Great Britain are expected to present Iran with a proposal for ending the crisis. The Iranians will once again attempt to stall for time.

 

Will the U.S. continue to allow the European countries handle the situation, or will it decide to enhance its involvement?

 

Today the U.S is mostly babbling about democratization in Iran; perhaps the election results will shake the Americans up a bit.

 

At least one positive thing will come out of these elections: The West will no longer be able to hang on to the illusion that there is a reformist government in Iran that should be encouraged.

 

As of today, there is a clear distinction between the “good” and the “bad.”

 

The new regime in Iran will not give up on its nuclear program; it will not even pretend to. 

 


פרסום ראשון: 06.26.05, 12:31
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