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Yair Lapid
Photo: Yoni Hamenachem

Will world applaud us?

As opposed to what many Israelis believe, world won't applaud Iran strike

At times, we need to stop and rethink everything. Our entire history is made up of people who were sure they knew the truth, yet forgot that the truth has an annoying tendency to change on occasion without us noticing it.

 

After all, only six years ago, President George W. Bush declared total victory in Iraq; five years ago, Ariel Sharon declared that Gush Katif will never be evacuated; only two years ago, we were sure that pure capitalism won and America's economy will continue to flourish; only a year ago, most experts explained that the US will never have a black president; only two months ago, it was clear that Netanyahu will never recognize the two-state vision.

 

This week, I will try to reexamine some truths that appear clear and self-evident to us. This is not exact science, but it is an opportunity to take another look at some things that looks obvious, even though they are not.

 

Cliché #1: If we strike Iran, the whole world will be overjoyed

 

This may be true for the first 60 seconds.

 

After that, Iran will close off the Strait of Hormuz, which is its virtually-automatic response when it's targeted. What does that mean? It means that oil will stop flowing from the Persian Gulf in both directions – both to the West and to the Far East. The Wall Street Journal recently estimated that in this case oil prices will rise astronomically.

 

A month later it will look as follows: Paralyzed factories in China and Japan, closed gas stations in Europe, millions of vehicles from California to New York not going anywhere, a paralyzed plastics industry, a paralyzed high-tech world, and irate citizens protesting outside Israeli embassies worldwide.

 

During the previous oil crisis, in the wake of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, OPEC members artificially raised the price of oil to $36 a barrel. This was enough to push the world into a frenzied tailspin that took five years to overcome. Ever since then, the world learned to treat oil producers cautiously. Those who quivered when they saw President Obama bow to the Saudi King recently should wait and see the whole world crawling when oil producers curb the supply of oil. And who do you think they will be blaming?

 

On top of that: While we will somehow address the guaranteed barrage of rockets from Lebanon and Gaza, the Iranians will also invest immense sums of money in a series of attacks on American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The voices we've been hearing in the US, whereby Americans are fed up with paying with body bags when Israel does whatever it wishes, will grow stronger.

 

Funding for international terrorism will receive a great boost of course, Syria's missile program will be upgraded, and Russia – which for years now had been trying to move closer to the oil producers' leadership – will gladly use the opportunity to declare that as we struck despite their many warnings, it is their moral duty to restore Iran's nuclear program.

 

All of the above does not mean that we should relinquish our right for self-defense; however, those who think that the world will stand up and applaud us are clueless.

 


פרסום ראשון: 07.06.09, 17:43
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