An impossible deal

As opposed to all the rumors, reports, and leaks, the Gilad Shalit deal is stuck and in fact there is no possibility of implementing it. We already heard so many times that a swap is about to be finalized (a tactic common in the Arab world and aimed at exerting pressure.) However, no deal can be finalized, because Hamas has no interest in finalizing it.

Hamas is not interested in a deal because the current situation is very convenient for it. German, Norwegian, and French mediators are constantly wooing it. What’s wrong with that? Hamas, which had been isolated by the world, is now enjoying the courtship of Western states. Perhaps even President Obama will embark on some kind of process with it, who knows.

At this time, Gilad Shalit is Hamas’ most precious (and only) asset. Why should they get rid of it?

Because it fears that such swap may indeed take place, Hamas raised the price, knowing that no state in the world would agree to such terms. By now Hamas is not only talking about prisoners. It also wants achievements on the national, security, and political fronts that completely contradict Israel’s interests. Never before in history had a state paid for one person, regardless of how important he is, with vital and existential interests.

What does Hamas demand at this time, aside from the prisoner list (which includes some highly dangerous detainees?) The opening of all crossings between Israel and Gaza on a permanent basis; the lifting of the siege in the air, sea, and land (that is, opening the Gaza Port so that Hamas has its own port for smuggling); restoration of the supply of food to the Strip to its previous levels (that is, Israel will need to feed this terrorist group and the Gaza population, as if the disengagement never happened.)

By the way, the latter two demands constitute a paradox. If the siege is lifted and Hamas can have contacts with the outside world, why should Israel continue feeding it? But who cares about such nuances.

Time to stop negotiations

Hamas also demands an Israeli obligation to refrain from any future attacks on the Gaza Strip. That is, the terrorists will fire at Israel, but the Jewish State will promise not to respond. Moreover, Hamas in fact wants to ban the entry of the IDF into the Strip under any circumstances.

No deal will be carried out under such terms. For that reason Israel cannot finalize and does not want such deal. The people who exert pressure on the government simply fail to understand the issues. The greater the pressure, the higher the price.

The Egyptians are also uninterested in a deal, as their mediation in the affair grants them an important status. Last month the Egyptians were outraged over the German mediation effort, and it was clear they will go to great lengths to get rid of it. This is indeed happening. Hamas figures arrived in Cairo and Netanyahu arrived in Egypt. This means that Egypt is back in the game.

It’s easy for the Egyptians to threaten Hamas that if it does not accept its mediation there will be no Hamas-Fatah negotiations – this is very important for Hamas. It’s also easy for the Egyptians to warn Netanyahu that if he does not accept their mediation they will no longer be “uncovering” smuggling tunnels in Rafah. Everyone is wooing Mubarak, so why should he stop?

In light of the above assessment, the negotiations on Gilad Shalit’s release have turned into a political means to show achievements, and therefore the talks may continue forever. Israel must stop these embarrassing discussions and start acting independently. It’s impossible that after so many years, the great IDF does not know where Gilad is being held. It’s simply impossible.