Photo: AP
ElBaradei. Hasn't changed his spots
Photo: AP
IAEA. Meeting with Security Council members
Photo: AFP

Israel will pay the price

Iran expected to demand international monitoring of Israel’s nuke sites

This is no light at the end of the tunnel. If anything, it’s a locomotive that is rushing towards us ahead of a disaster. This is how Israel should be seeing the agreement with Iran on uranium enrichment overseas, as announced by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s outgoing chief, Mohammad ElBaradei.


The achievement boasted by ElBaradei comes with a price. This man, who intelligence agencies in the West identified a while ago as a collaborator with Iran, is going to sell us out and make our lives more complicated.


Officials in Washington are already prepared for the possibility that one of Iran’s ultimate demands in exchange for this deal will be international monitoring of Israel’s nuclear facilities. We won’t be surprised to see a parade of senior Israeli officials invited to Washington soon for “consultations” regarding the price.


ElBaradei is a swindler. For years now, Western officials have suspected that he informs the Iranians about international community intentions to inspect their nuclear sites. The Iranians received advance warnings and knew what the West is looking for. They had a good source within the IAEA.


There is no chance that ElBaradei changed his spots on the occasion of his departure from the IAEA. He will be delighted to realize the wet dream of his native land, Egypt, and of the entire Arab world by neutralizing Israel’s alleged nuclear capabilities.


The Iranians will not give up the right to enrich uranium and their aspirations to secure nuclear weapons. However, the internal struggle within Iran involves some significant bodies which estimate that Tehran will have trouble acquiring such capabilities at this time.


The signs indicating that the Iranians want a deal were apparent in the first meeting held by Iran’s representatives with IAEA officials and UN Security Council members several weeks ago. Ahead of the meeting, the Iranians publicly announced that they are willing to talk about anything, with the exception of the nuclear issue. However, once they entered the conference room, they kept on talking about their nuclear program.


No military option

There are members within Iran’s leadership who realize that they will not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. They are also truly scared of an Israeli-American military blow. Hence, securing a deal at a good price is a nice option for them at this time, until better days arrive and the pressure on Iran subsides.


Western representatives who are taking part in the Vienna talks realize that the Iranians will demand a high price in exchange for a deal, so that they can boast achievements domestically and vis-à-vis the Islamic world. Economic and commercial benefits as well as the boosting of Iran’s international status are taken for granted. However, the Iranians have another trick up their sleeve, as far as Washington knows.


We are talking about a demand that will turn them into the heroes of the Arab and Muslim world: The monitoring of Israeli nuclear sites. Besides, the Iranians really do view Israel’s nukes as a tangible and relevant threat. So the world wants us to get rid of our nuclear capabilities? Make the Israelis do the same.


Once this issue shifts to practical terms, the US will turn the ball over to Israel. Yet it is difficult to come up with one responsible Israeli leader who will be willing to even discuss such deal vis-à-vis the Iranians.


In their first meeting, US President Barak Obama promised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to honor Israel’s nuclear ambiguity policy. At least, this is what has been recently leaked to the American media. We can assume that America will not force Israel to accept an Iranian imposition on this front, even if it comes at the expense of hindering the talks with Tehran.


However, in the strange world we inhabit, it is possible that the West will give in to what Iran dictates. Even if ultimately we see the signing of a deal without this imposition, it is completely clear that Israel has been left with no military option at this time; unless it wishes to stay all alone on this globe.


פרסום ראשון: 10.22.09, 18:25
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