Photo: Yariv Katz
Guy Bechor
Photo: Yariv Katz

Iran’s nuclear boomerang

Op-ed: Nuclear bomb would fully isolate Tehran, prompt masses to bring down regime

The media and public storm in Israel in the wake of the report on Iran’s nuclear program, and the concern in Israel over an Iranian nuclear bomb, is exaggerated. Those who should be bothered by the latest developments are members of Iran’s Khomeinist regime; the nuclear program is turning into a curse for it. Should the bomb come to life, it shall prompt the regime’s demise.


Indeed, the international community is slow in imposing tough sanctions on Tehran, because many engage in surreptitious and even open trade ties with it – for example, Germany and France, which are Israel’s allies. However, one cannot say that nothing is happening.


Last week, the House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously passed a bill that sets a series of sanctions on foreign firms that provide Iran with fuel or other refined oil products. Such companies and individuals would no longer be allowed to enter the US, do business there, work with its banks and so on. Similar sanctions shall be imposed on those who help Iran develop its own oil refining capabilities.


The bill also asserts that President Obama must clarify within 30 days of the law going into effect whether Tehran’s central bank supports the acquisition of nuclear arms, Iran’s missile program, the procurement of advanced weapons or terror. If the answer to any one of these questions is positive, the US shall boycott any foreign bank that engages in significant transactions with Iran’s central bank.


Nice holiday present

Moreover, American representatives and diplomats shall be banned from meeting with Iranian reps, in order to prevent direct negotiations with the regime, and the US Administration shall no longer provide spare parts for civilian aircraft in Iran. Congress is also granting Obama the power to boost the economic and political assistance to Iran’s opposition.


This bipartisan bill is supposed to be passed in Congress and Senate by Christmas. It would make a “nice holiday present” for Ahmadinejad, said Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who is leading the initiative with her Democratic colleague Howard Berman.


Israel and its allies must make sure that France and Germany join similar legislation, thereby fully isolating the Iranian regime. Russia and China will object, but most of Iran’s trade is undertaken with the European Union. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s report offers great help in this diplomatic battle to economically suffocate Iran.


Ethnic troubles

Iran’s rulers are aware of the frightening decline in their global status. They see Gaddafi, the tyrant who was killed, and the regime of their ally, Assad, slowly marching towards its demise, and they understand.


And let’s assume Iran acquires a nuclear bomb – at that very moment, the world shall be truly closing in on it, because up to this point Tehran still claims that it seeks nuclear energy for “peaceful” purposes. Then, the millions of Iranians who wish to rid themselves of the ayatollah regime shall rise up. We already saw them in the forged presidential elections of 2009, and they have not disappeared. And how would a nuclear bomb help then? Will the regime drop it on Tehran to kill the rebels?


As it is, Iran is growing weaker on the ethnic front. The Kurds are killing the Revolutionary Guards and are increasingly joining forces with the Kurds of Iraq, Syria and Turkey; Iran’s Sunni Arabs (about one-third of the population) are dreaming about an independent Sunni state, and the Azeri people are dreaming of joining Azerbaijan. A dying economy in Iran would completely undermine the national stripes left in the country, as was the case in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.


This is the curse imposed on the Tehran regime: The more it advances with its nuclear program, the more isolated Iran shall become, with the regime facing a deeper domestic threat. In this respect we must admit that Ahmadinejad is doing quite a good job.



פרסום ראשון: 11.10.11, 19:06
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