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'US-Russia tussle over Syria invokes Cold War'

Israeli official says regional proxy war already underway in Syria, might lead to 'real chaos'

The world could slip back into a Cold War over Syria and the sprawling Arab country could break up into two or three warring parts, with unforeseeable consequences for the Middle East, a senior Israeli military commander said.


"Support for (Syrian President Bashar) Assad from Russia and China is taking us back to the Cold War," he said this week, on condition of anonymity. "The world is not a one-man show."


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A regional proxy war is already under way in Syria, he said, with direct, daily, on-the-ground support for Assad from his allies in Iran and Lebanon's heavily-armed Hezbollah movement.


"There can be real chaos. It can take years," he said.


The 15-month-old conflict in Syria has grown into a full-scale civil war, the UN peacekeeping chief said on Tuesday.


No military intervention

Hundreds of civilians, rebels and members of Assad's army and security forces have been killed since a ceasefire deal brokered two months ago was meant to halt the bloodshed.


Russia and China backed the United Nations plan to send in military observers to check on adherence to the truce, but have refused to consider Western calls for a UN Security mandate that would authorize force, including military intervention.


The West has repeatedly said it has no plan to intervene, but has not ruled it out.


"In Syria, a proxy war is under way with Iran supplying arms to its Alawite client and Turkey actively arming the opposition," says Can Kasapoglu, a Turkish analyst who is currently a visiting fellow at Begin-Sadat think tank.


The rebel Free Syrian Army is getting support from Sunni states Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all allies of Washington.


Washington says Russia may be sending attack helicopters to its ally Syria. Claims by Moscow that its arms transfers to Syria are unrelated to the conflict are "patently untrue," US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday.


Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday defended his country's sale of arms to Syria, an ally for decades where Moscow has Mediterranean port facilities.


Washington Said it stood by Secretary Clinton's comments.


Proxy wars

The tussle is reminiscent of Cold War diplomacy when proxy wars were frequently in the background. The superpowers, who could not risk a direct nuclear-armed confrontation between each other, battled for hegemony by involvement on warring sides in third countries.


From 1945 to the collapse of Soviet communism in 1989 there were proxy wars in Greece, Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Angola, Mozambique, Cuba, El Salvador and Nicaragua.


In the post-Cold War world, America was the only superpower, but spheres of influence were heeded.

In Libya last year, however, Moscow was stung by NATO's military intervention under a UN mandate it believed had been stretched beyond the limits it had agreed to.


"Assad has seen the death of Gaddafi in Libya and the fate of Mubarak in Egypt and he understands he has no choice. He knows his Alawite minority will be slaughtered," the officer said. "We all know the end of the story. We just don't know the chapters."


The question is who might grab the lead in "this Sykes-Picot country", he said, referring to Syria's creation by colonial powers Britain and France after the First World War, on what look like arbitrary geographical lines that disregard tribal and ethnic distinctions.


"Who will replace Assad? Will it be all those doctors in Europe (Syrian National Council in exile) or will it be al Qaeda?" said the officer, adding US ally Saudi Arabia was very concerned.


"It is not a nation state like Iran and Egypt are. It can become two or three states."


The risks of a regional war were clear, he said, as key US Middle East ally Israel faces the possibility of its sworn enemy Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state and contemplates whether military action will be needed in the end to stop it.


Israel has to be prepared, he said.


"You don't know what will trigger it, but everything is ready for a big, big fire. You don't know who will strike the match."





פרסום ראשון: 06.13.12, 22:31
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