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Ron Ben-Yishai

Power struggle in Cairo

Part 2 of analysis: Showdown between Egypt’s Islamists, powerful military has not yet been decided

Nobody knows which other changes and crises are in store for us in the Egyptian theater, and there is no prophet who could tell us what kind of regime will take root in Egypt in three years. However, the picture at this time isn’t as bleak as it is sometimes being portrayed.

 

Indeed, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists currently rule Egypt. However, the power struggle and political arm-wrestling between them and the secular masses (including the Christian Copts) and the army has not yet been decided.

 

Moreover, the presidential election results, which saw an Islamist win by a 3.4% margin, point to the great power held by the various elements represented by the generals in the Supreme Military Council.

 

Moreover, the Council rushed to assume and maintain powers that undermine the president’s and parliament’s authority and limit their decision-making ability. For example, the Council kept the power to form Egypt’s constitutional committee and to disqualify clauses in the yet to be drafted constitution.

 

During the Mubarak era, the constitution granted the president omnipotent power. However, Egypt has no constitution at this time, and in the quickest scenario will have a new one only three months from now. In the absence of a constitution, the president’s powers are wholly unclear, and he is almost completely dependent on the kosher stamp of the generals and Egyptian courts, which are manned by former Mubarak officials.

 

The generals have already declared explicitly that the new president has no authority to declare war or make decisions on major international affairs, such has the peace treaty with Israel. Yet this is not all. Egypt will also be holding repeat elections for parliamentary seats disqualified by the courts.

 

In short, the generals have economic interests (pertaining to Egypt as a whole and specifically to the immense military-industrial complex,) coupled with secular ideology that motivates them to prevent a complete Muslim Brotherhood takeover. The army also possesses military power that the Brotherhood fears. Hence, for the time being at least, the generals are Egypt’s real rulers, despite the Islamist election victory.

 

The Brotherhood’s challenge

However, the generals also fear the street, and are therefore willing to make concessions to the Islamists. For this reason, the two sides engaged in lengthy discussions in recent days aimed at formulating a coexistence arrangement. The talks apparently ended with partial agreement, thereby allowing the election committee to announce that Morsi as Egypt’s next president.

 

We should keep one more thing in mind: For years now, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has been claiming that “Islam is the solution.” Now, the movement must prove that this slogan has a basis. That is, the Brotherhood must find a solution for Egypt’s economic distress, and specifically for the ills maligning the young people who gave rise to the revolution.

 

The Muslim Brotherhood will not be able to do this without outside help, and should it adopt a staunch Islamist approach against Israel and the West, this will serve to deter Egypt’s wealthy supporters, that is, the Americans and the Saudis.

 

Under the circumstances, where the battle for commanding the Egyptian street pitting secular forces against the Islamists has not yet been decided, and given that Egypt’s Islamists themselves don’t yet know where they are headed, we can assume that the peace treaty between Israel and its large southern neighbor faces no immediate risk.

 

Meanwhile, we cannot expect the situation in the Sinai Peninsula to improve, and the opposite may in fact be true. And so, in the near future, things will likely remain the same. As to the more distant future, Allahu Akbar.

 

 


פרסום ראשון: 06.25.12, 19:12
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