Years ago, "window of opportunity" became a new term in the Israeli political lexicon. Back then, in the beginning of the 1990s, the term did not require any clever explanations. The Soviet Union was collapsing; Syria was losing its Soviet patron, which stopped shipping arms to Damascus; and the Palestinian Liberation Organization was waning. I'm certain there were other such "windows" over the course of modern history, but that of the early 1990s is remembered most.
Shrewd politicians realize when such a "window" has opened, then look towards the historic horizon and seize the opportunity, which may never come again.
In my opinion, such a window has opened now, today, at this moment – and it may never come again. This is the situation: In light of the rise of the dangerous and inciting extremist Islam, a sort of coalition has been formed – an invisible alliance between countries that are terrified of this development. This dangerous Islam, like a tsunami many miles off shore, is getting closer, and its waves may wash us all away – enemies and allies alike.
Within a number of our neighboring countries, which are all hostile to Israel, there still exists a serious core of rulers who fear what's coming – even if they are a part of radical Islam. I'm referring to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan and even Egypt, Syria and Lebanon. It's hard to believe, but even today there are ways of reaching these leaders, who look out their windows every day and see the scary people with the butcher's knives getting closer and closer.
This is the current, interim situation: The old guard is gone, and the new leaders have yet to settle in. But in the long run, it appears that any "moderate" government will not be able to survive. We will be surrounded by the sword of Islam.
Therefore, an unspoken alliance has been created between Israel and a number of Arab countries, all of which receive some sort of support from the US. Obama's America is making a thousand foreign policy mistakes a week, but it is still a superpower feared by all – apart from a few Jewish settlement leaders of course.
The basic assumption is that Israel will not get involved in any wars in the near future. A war would destroy Egypt, which is focusing on how to feed 80 million mouths. It would have made sense for Syria's Assad to open fire on the Golan Heights to divert attention from his war at home, but he is keeping this front quiet for now. Abbas' "batteries" have run out and he does not have any energy left in the territories, and it seems that even Hamas does not have us at the top of its list of priorities.
But make no mistake: In the long historical process, which may take years, a wave of Islamization will sweep through the entire Middle East and endanger Israel in some way. As far as the Islamists are concerned, striking Israel now would divert them from the correct historic path.
If Israel and the aforementioned countries fail to ask themselves, "What have we done today to promote mutual understanding," sooner or later a war will break out.