Photo: Geva
Tank on Syrian border
Photo: Geva
Norwegian study foresees world peace in 2050
University of Oslo researchers say just 7% of countries will be involved in armed conflicts in next 40 years

Researchers from the University of Oslo and the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), estimate that by 2050, the number of wars around the world will decrease by half.


If 15% of the world's countries are currently involved in armed conflicts, by the middle of the 21st century, this rate will stand at 7%. 


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The scientists' forecast is based on a statistical model created, amongst others, by Professor Håvard Hegre of the Department of Political Science at the University of Oslo.  

חיילי צה"ל ברמת הגולן. אולם גם ילדינו לא יצטרכו להתגייס כבר? (צילום: EPA)

Perhaps IDF soldiers will no longer need to enlist? 


Hegre found that since World War II, there has been an ongoing decline not only in the number of armed conflicts but also in the number of people killed in them.


Hegre and his colleagues estimate that this trend will continue. "War has become less acceptable, just like duelling, torture and the death penalty," he explained.


The researchers present a variety of reasons why the world has become less militant.


The fact that infant mortality is declining around the world, is noted as a reason for the drop in the number of wars. This is because studies prove that countries in which infant mortality is more common have a greater tendency to enter armed conflicts.


The researchers also noted that the fact that the economic profitability of war has lessened, (since, amongst other things, it is harder to take financial capital by force) has contributed to the relative sparsity of war.


Also contributing, is the effectiveness of UN peacekeepers in regions of conflict over the past decade.


According to the study, the conflicts in the Ivory Coast, Iran, Mauritania, Senegal, Libya, Syria and Tadzhikistan will end within the next five years.


Moreover, in 2017 the following countries will be in the greatest danger of war: India, the Philippines, Myanmar, Uganda and Ethiopia. In 2050, the countries in the most danger will be India, Nigeria, the Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania.



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