Obama playing poker against a hostile Congress
Analysis: If the world powers reach an agreement with Iran, the US president will have to bring his poker secrets into the internal political field in order to deal with a theatrical Congress during an election year; the Republicans, meanwhile, are preparing the show of a lifetime for him.
Within a short period of time, he became a poker artist, and would sometimes buy the bottle of whiskey for them and drink with them. When he arrived in college, the students were afraid to play against him. Several years ago, when he was asked what a politician needs in order to survive in aggressive Washington, he replied that you have to know how to play poker, not as an amateur, but in order to win.
Now Obama is playing the poker game of his presidential life: Not just against Iran, but mainly against a hostile Congress which has raised the volume of outcries and criticism over the agreement taking shape with Iran.
The negotiations in Vienna are ongoing, and it's still unclear whether an agreement will indeed be achieved by the deadline, Thursday, but the Iranians are hoping it will happen. The Islamic Republic is living on the last drops of cash, and friends of mine there say that everyone is glued to the news websites, waiting for an announcement about an agreement in order to begin the celebrations. There is not a single house in Iran which has not been affected by the sanctions, and the leadership knows that in order to silence the masses it must reach an agreement which will lead to the sanctions' removal.
The American administration also has an interest in reaching an agreement this week: The law states that if the agreement is submitted to the Congress by July 9, it will have 30 days to review its clauses. If the agreement is submitted after July 9, it will have 60 days. In other words, more time for digging in between the different sections, asking questions, raising objections and foot-dragging. That's why Iran wants to hurry up too: It knows that while the Congress reviews the agreement, the sanctions won’t be lifted.
Meanwhile in Vienna, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif start the morning with a joint breakfast, off the record, to discuss life. That's the new normalization between the United States and Iran.
It still doesn’t mean that an agreement will be reached this week, but if it is reached – Obama will have to bring his poker secrets into the internal political field in order to deal with a theatrical Congress during an election year. The Republicans are preparing the show of a lifetime for him. They are convinced that their voters want them to hit Obama hard. Iran is just the trigger.
So far, Obama's political rivals have claimed that he is a weak, naïve and spineless leader. Now they plan to launch a campaign against him – that he is selling out the American foreign policy, that he is lending a hand to an agreement which is dangerous to national security.
This time it won't be easy for them, because his standing among the public has grown stronger following a series of impressive achievements: His health revolution became a solid and legal fact after being ratified by the Supreme Court, and that same Supreme Court voted in favor of same-sex marriage, an issue supported and promoted by Obama.
Now, with high approval ratings, Obama is determined to reach an agreement with Iran in order to establish his heritage in the foreign relations area as well, after normalizing America's ties with Cuba. He seeks to be remembered in history as the president who stopped Iran's nuclearization, and according to his perception, that can only be achieved through an agreement.
The republicans are also preparing for the battle of their lives. Election year has begun and the party's 14 candidates will compete over who can find harsher and more blatant words to reject the agreement with Iran and present it as an American surrender.
The Republicans are sharpening their knives, Obama is preparing his cards, and after he wins, it's not at all certain that he will treat them to whiskey. His advisors like to mention that the president doesn’t drink with just anyone.
