The thousands of Iranians who took to the streets to wave the photos of "the hero," President Hassan Rouhani, and "the star," Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif, are now going through a stage of painful disillusionment.
The sweet illusions are melting away. The regime is indicating that the nuclear agreement was not aimed at leading a historical revolution. On the contrary: The religious scholars, the conservative old people surrounding supreme leader Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards, who received an order to keep their mouths shut and avoid intervening in the negotiations for the agreement, have achieved their goal.
If anyone benefits from the release of the frozen $150 billion and from opening up the global oil market, it will be neither the unemployed young people nor those dreaming about changing Iran's face.
From conversations I have had with young Iranians in Europe in recent days, I am learning of great frustration and deficiencies in understanding the messages from Tehran immediately after the agreement was declared. Khamenei waited patiently for the Zarif and Rouhani's victory speeches and for Obama's statement in Washington, and then went out to say his piece. The young people of Iran, the dreamers, knew it would be the decisive message.
When Khamenei encourages them to keep cursing the United States, and Israel too on the way, they realize that the revolution is not waiting around the corner. As long as he is the ruler, Khamenei intends on using his power and brutal authorities in order to prevent a deep change in Iran. If a change does occur, he will be the first to be kicked out.
Local rapper Tataloo, the young Iranians' idol, surprisingly received permission to release his new clip, "Nuclear Energy," which has gained more than 1 million views in Iran so far. Before the agreement, he would have been thrown to jail with a song arguing with the nuclear facilities, the international boycott and the sanctions. Now he is marking the young ones' hopes, but understands very well that there are red lines to the freedom of expression in Iran.
He is the one who is documenting the victory over "the plot." Because in the eyes of the ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards, US President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and the Israeli Mossad concocted a scheme: To give Iran an agreement which would expose the dark Islamic Republic to the economic wonders of the big world, in order to destroy it from the inside. And in simpler words, to dazzle Rouhani and Zarif with economic baits, and stimulate the young ones to lead a revolution that would kick out the ayatollahs.
The ardent speeches delivered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon didn’t fool Tehran. The military echelon there convinced itself that Netanyahu is saying one thing, and allowing himself to open a front against Obama, but that behind the scenes they are both teaming up. Washington and Jerusalem have decided to shower Iran with dangerous economic bonuses in order to get the young Iranians to continue the revolution which failed in 2009.
Because of the "scheme," closed Iranian forums explain, Obama gave up the release of four American citizens from Iran, did not make demands on Iraq and "forgot" to equip Kerry with a grocery list concerning Syria, the Persian Gulf and Iran's support for Hezbollah's terror.
The message conveyed by Khamenei and his choir of spokespeople, that "there will be no change in the policy vis-à-vis the US," should be read and internalized as it is. It does not aim to calm down the agreement's opponents in the conservative camp.
Until further notice, this will be Tehran's policy and conduct. And on the way, they will continue making threats against the moderate Arab camp, and inform Israel that "while you read into us better than others, we have succeeded in interpreting what is behind the 'scheme.' We have caught you. Don't try to outsmart us. We know how to handle anyone plotting to translate the agreement into a dramatic move."