'Israel is paying a heavy price'

In the first interview of its kind, Military Intelligence Director Aharon Zeevi Farkash answered questions from ArabYnet surfers throughout the Arab world. Several questions even came from countries hostile to Israel, such as Syria and Lebanon. This article is also being published simultaneously in Hebrew and Arabic. Kerem, Palestine: Do you think Israel failed militarily in stopping the Palestinian Intifada and that a better way would have been the continuation of dialog with the Palestinian Authority and agreement for extreme organizations such as Hamas to participate in Palestinian political life? Farkash: I think Israel has proven it can contain terror. The Defense Shield military operation two years ago is proof we can do that. It can’t be stopped by 100 percent. However, we can say for sure we have the military capability to contain terror. Without this many of the processes would not have happened. Hamas would not have reached an understanding that it should seek the path of calm, and Abu Mazan (Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas) would not have reached the conclusion that the armed Intifada must stop. After Yassin, Rantisi (former Hamas leaders) and the death of Arafat, everyone was apprehensive. However, our intelligence said there would be no large-scale terror attacks because the Palestinians don’t have the capability. There was immense motivation but we said their abilities had dropped. Paradoxically, their capability now is stronger than in the past, which concerns us because under the unmbrella of calm, the Palestinians are rebuilding their strength. If God forbid they receive an order or command to do so they would abandon the calm within 24-48 hours. They have the capability, which didn’t exist after Yassin, Rantisi and Arafat's death, to carry out attacks in Israel. If the calm is shattered there are likely to be large-scale terror attacks here. One must remember though, Israel is restraining itself because we want to give the other side a chance. We are paying a high price for our restraint. We have intelligence, but we are not acting on it to give them (Palestinians) a chance. The Palestinian factions are taking advantage of the calm, and I want to reiterate that Hamas is determined not to shatter the ceasefire, but it is keeping an account of our every move. In addition, there is a lot of activity in putting together terror attacks, what we call “held back attacks” or "attacks in the barrel.” I am not prepared to go into detail but we are in a position where within 24-48 hours we could witness a series of large scale terror attacks, including arms smuggling tunnels. We know arms smuggling tunnels exist in the Gaza Strip, some which have been completed and others are about to be finished. But that’s the implication of continuing preparations (for the Gaza pullout). There are great efforts to obtain knowledge and develop Qassam rockets in the West Bank, particularly in Jenin and Nablus, similar to the end of 2001 and the beginning of 2002. All this effort is being utilized by Hamas and Islamic Jihad for the very day when they believe they may have to return to carrying arms. This situation is very fragile. Besides talking, Abu Mazen has also been taking action. He has arrested several suspects involved in the Tel Aviv nightclub bombing. From the middle of February 21 until Thursday, the Palestinian security forces have carried out more than 150 anti-terror acts, and arrests. Although it is true there were 170 terror activities, including shooting incidents, explosive devices and other means or terror, I can say for a fact that prevention of such acts was not carried out earlier. There is also a shift in terminology: Terror acts are no longer called an "act of sacrifice" but only a "terror act". This shift was instigated by Abu Mazen and other Palestinian Authority senior officials. We are in a fate-shaping period and whether the outcome will be optimistic or pessimistic will be determined around July 2005. At the moment, from what’s been carried out so far, the Palestinians should be satisfied with what Abu Mazen is doing. He is taking positive steps, however, there are also dangers as I have mentioned. “Someone”: Do you think Abu Mazen will bring about peace with Israel? Do you think he can stop the Palestinian resistance? Farkash: It’s been just two months since Abu Mazen was elected and when you look at his achievements they are important and impressive. He has managed to forge a very clear path. He knows that he can’t begin the process from the end – namely to collect arms, arrest people and put them on trial. And so he has opted for a path of persuasion. You must remember Abu Mazen has problems from within the Fatah ranks, and in fact faces several central oppositions: Hamas, which activates and ceases terror at will, and the opposition from within. Therefore he has not started at the end but he has opted for the rout of calm and persuasion and so far Hamas is going along with him. If he continues on this path and also brings to justice those who perpetuate terror, which he didn't do with Islamic Jihad who claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing at the Tel Aviv nightclub, I believe there is a chance he would succeed in holding up. That is providing no large-scale terror act is carried out until July. Hamas also seeks calm, it senses it on the street and it supports it at present. You must remember Abu Mazen didn’t take Arafat’s place. He is a completely different person. His vision is different and he believes in a completely different path. He opposes an armed Intifada. He put this to a national referendum in the elections in which he gained 63 percent of the vote. This means the armed Intifada has failed and the continuation of the struggle will be continued by other means. Abbas wasn’t elected as the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority but to the post of chairman of the PLO and Palestinian Authority, and amid this he has clashed with Hamas who says he has no authority to make a decision to end the Intifada. Meanwhile, however, Abu Mazen plans to stop the Intifada. He has managed to instill calm, what he terms “Tahadiya” and he is on his way to Cairo where he wants to make a leap beyond “Tahidiya” to a “Hudna,” namely a ceasefire. I don’t believe this will be achieved and they will not be able to declare a cease-fire but the calm will be maintained. Assad Abu Azzam, Bahrain: Isn’t it Israel’s duty to ease restrictions and provide aid to Abu Mazen, because his election strengthens security, peace and coexistence between Arabs and Israelis? Farkash: I think that’s true and that is the Israeli policy. People say Abu Mazen is operating alone, but I don’t think so. The Palestinian people are with him, and if there is a source from which he draws his strength it is from the humanitarian aspect. Israel is very sensitive to humanitarian matters. In meetings with the Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, Abu Mazen, Palestinian Interior Minister Nasser Yousef and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Israel clearly indicated the relief efforts it has carried out. We shall continue being sensitive to this issue, even if under the umbrella of calm they are continuing to rearm and to increase the range and accuracy of their Qassam rockets. We have to give Abu Mazen a chance. Do you think Syria’s role in Lebanon is over or that there are still Syrian intelligence cells that would cooperate with the Hizbullah in managing Lebanon’s affairs? What is the solution for ending Hizbullah’s role in the region? Farkash: Syrian president Bashar Assad’s strategic goals will determine what happens in Lebanon. He has four strategic goals the first is the stability of his regime. Assad doesn’t want to enter the annals of history as one who lost his power. The second, is the economic situation, Syria is in a bad economic situation with unemployment of 20 percent. A million and a quarter Syrians live in Lebanon and if they return to Syria the crises will only worsen. The third goal is Lebanon, Syria has a real fear that Israel might outflank obstacles in the Golan Heights and reach Damascus via Lebanon, and therefore its army is stationed there. The fourth goal is the Golan Heights, which his father lost to Israel. I believe that Syria’s influence in Lebanon shouldn’t be measured by the number of Tanks and commando forces deployed in Lebanon. Its status and influence should be measured by its diplomatic, political and economic intelligence involvement. Namely, there could be an exchange of forces and we can see who as been elected as prime minister. I believe Assad understands the dangers posed to his regime, and as a result he understands the international pressure exerted on him will have to lead to a minimal presence in Lebanon. The bottom line is, that if he demands it, all the military forces will leave (Lebanon), but this doesn’t mean Syria will relinquish its influence there. Moreover, It would be very difficult to enforce deployment of Syrian intelligence from Lebanon and we would have to see how Assad makes this change. It won’t be an expedited process.

'Israel is paying a heavy price'

Military intelligence head speaks to Arab Internet surfers throughout Arab world; praises Abbas's achievements so far, but says if calm breaks large-scale terror attack likely