Hamas win came as surprise, to some
Photo: AP
Hamas members celebrate victory
Photo: AP
Not quite the result he was looking for: Abbas
Photo: Reuters
Israeli intelligence got it wrong
IDF officials failed to predict Hamas victory
OOPS, surprised again: Hamas' apparent victory in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections is something of an embarrassment for the IDF, and particularly for the Intelligence Corps.
The new PA?
Ali Waked
Hamas shocker: Partial vote count shows Hamas assured of winning as many as 80 out of 132 parliament seats; group defeats Fatah in Hebron, Gaza, and Nablus; PM Qureia announces resignation, government disperses
The Intelligence Corps failed to predict what now appears as a Hamas victory, and all IDF senior officials apparently failed to correctly judge the goings-on in the Palestinian arena.
Israel's intelligence community will get the results of Wednesday's election this morning, and some officials already admit their pre-election speculations were wrong.
"It is too early to interpret the meaning of these results, but it is clear a Palestinian Authority headed by Hamas will reduce the chances to continue with security-political dialogue with the Palestinians," said one official Thursday. "But it is also too early to tell if the election result will lead to security escalation."
The IDF Intelligence Corps may have chosen to believe opinion polls in the PA, but the fact remains that the official prediction, published several weeks ago, a senior intelligence official said, "Hamas will get 30-40 percent of the vote."
Such numbers would be far from a strong victory for either Hamas or Fatah. The officer also said that "the more satisfied Hamas becomes, the harder it will be for the group to return to (armed) struggle."
Perhaps that's also not quite right?
No interest?
He continued: "Hamas has no interest at the moment in winning the elections for the PA legislative council. Hamas prefers to be a thorn in the side to the Palestinian establishment, while retaining the right to use terror against Israel in order to realize its dream," one senior official told Ynet earlier this week.
No Interest? Turns out they didn't do too badly.
Some people did warn Hamas could win.
Chief of Staff Dan Halutz spoke carefully about the matter earlier this week at the Herzliya Conference: "I don't know if Hamas will win, if Fatah will win or if anarchy will win. In my opinion there are many possible outcomes for these elections, one of which would set things many years back."
Anarchy coming?
The chief of staff also hinted that anarchy could reign after the elections.
"I don't envisage a Hamas victory and Fatah just handing over power, but perhaps democracy is stronger there than I can tell from here," he said.
Some people outside the ranks of the IDF were very precise about their predictions.
Political earthquake in the PA (Photo: Reuters)
"A Hamas victory would cause an earthquake and confusion that will change the entire world. Islam will be seen to slap nationalism in the face, and all of a sudden the nationalist idea that the Palestinians have based themselves and their struggle on will be out. It is a blow similar to the one the Arab world took in 1967 (following the Six-Day War,)" Tel Aviv University professor Shaul Mishal told Ynet earlier this week.
"Theoretically, the Hamas movement has already won. After just a few years, the group has captured a central position in Palestinian politics. Its new position might lead the organization to international recognition. It's the first time an Islamic group has gained legitimacy by virtue of democratic process, and that could create a situation that Fatah won't tolerate," he says.
So where now?
The defense establishment is currently learning the results of the election, and admit the new situation in the PA is more complex than it has been in years.
In recent years Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz has said constantly that Israel would not negotiate with Hamas representatives, and only dramatic change in the organization's character as a terror organization, recognizing Israel and changing the organization's covenant "could serve as an initial basis for dialogue in the future."
But Mofaz himself admitted several days ago that he did not foresee such changes any time in the future. Asked whether some of the seemingly moderate statements of Hamas leaders in recent days signify a positive change vis-à-vis Israel, he said, "Hamas is a terrorist organization. Terror, terror, terror. It has always been, and remains, a terrorist organization, and we continue to see it as such."
On the other hand, we are starting to hear voices that Hamas' victory could have unexpected implications on the future, if it becomes clear in coming weeks that Hamas will use its newfound power to work on behalf of the Palestinian people and refrain from terror, it could eventually lead to negotiations with Israel.
Wednesday, while polling booths were still open Israeli security officials said a post-victory Hamas could make contact with Israel via a third party, such as a European country.
