Hamas rally – election's big winner?
Photo: Reuters
Hamas win would be blow for Palestinians
Hamas victory would cause earthquake in Palestinian politics
A Hamas win in the Legislative Council elections would constitute a blow for Palestinian nationalism, says Shaul Mishal, a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University and director of the university's Institute for Israeli Arab Studies.
Mishal says that even before the first vote was cast, Hamas had already emerged as the election's big winner.
And if Hamas decides to join the Palestinian government, it could create even more problems.
"A Hamas victory would cause an earthquake and confusion that will change the entire world. Islam will be seen to slap nationalism in the face, and all of a sudden the nationalist idea that the Palestinians have based themselves and their struggle on will be out. It is a blow similar to the one the Arab world took in 1967 (following the Six-Day War,)" he says.
PA Elections
Ali Waked
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"Theoretically, the Hamas movement has already won. After just a few years, the group has captured a central position in Palestinian politics. Its new position might lead the organization to international recognition. It's the first time an Islamic group has gained legitimacy by virtue of democratic process, and that could create a situation that Fatah won't tolerate," he says.
Potential violence, international involvement
If that happens, Fatah could turn to domestic and overall violence and it could lose control of the diplomatic process.
"If Fatah wins a majority, even by a small margin, it could neutralize Hamas, and that could bolster fringe groups such as Islamic Jihad."
He added: "One of the most likely results of this process is more involvement from other countries in the region, especially Jordan and Egypt, because were the situation in Egypt to deteriorate, it could expose that country to international jihad. Same for Jordan. So, it could be that the Palestinian problem would snowball to new levels – from a regional problem to an international one. "
"In general, one of the results of this election is that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will cease to be a duet, and will become a choir piece involving many countries, as is currently the situation in Lebanon," explains Prof. Mishal.
"Hamas hasn't decided what its goals are – does it want to join the government, or will it suffice to be a noisy parliamentary opposition? From here, we can understand the two-sided meanings in their statements," says Brig. Gen. (res.) Shalom Harari, a former advisor on the territories in the defense ministry and today a senior researcher at the International Counter-Terrorism Policy Institute in Herzliya.
"Even if they make do with sitting in parliament, it won't be like it was before. If in the past, stubborn lawmakers were summoned to 'clear things up' and put back in their places. Today no one can 'clear things up' to Hamas members backed up by an armed wing.
"This is also true with regard to other organizations that will participate for the first time in elections, such as the Popular Front or the Democratic Front. So this time we could get a parliament that is completely different than anything we've known before.
"Parliament won't be able to function"
According to Harari, Hamas' participation in parliament will lead to even more problems.
"If up to now the PA has failed to enforce its laws, as soon as the new parliament takes office it won't even be able to make laws. The Americans convinced Mahmoud Abbas to pass a law after the election that would be considered trivial in most countries: One law, and one armed body.
Now, it is unlikely that such a law could pass.
PA Elections
Nahum Barnea
Regardless of PA election results, Hamas has already won, Nahum Barnea writes
"First of all, Hamas ministers will take office and want to replace veteran Fatah apparatchiks with their own people. It's hard to see a situation how that's going to happen without a violent fight. Fatah people are very used to privileged positions.
"Secondly, expect a real economic crisis following the elections, because of the PA's election economy – just look at the latest World Bank warnings.
"Third, after Hamas joins the government, they will take over 'social' portfolios such as education and welfare, allowing them to assume senior ministries and giving them the wherewithal to distribute favors to the masses but not requiring them to deal with Israel. And so we will see a situation in which public Palestinian money is used to fund Hamas' network of social programs. This will only help the organization build its strength."
Target: PLO
Where is Hamas headed? Its strategy remains what it always has been – the total liberation of holy Palestine, from the river to the sea.
"But this is not an immediate goal," says Harari. "The general goal is to take control of the Palestinian leadership, but not in a brutal way. Their method is just like the Muslim Brotherhood, move slowly, patiently, quietly, confidently.
"The more immediate goal would be to take over the PLO. Abbas already promised them, in March 2005 to give them representation according to their election percentages in senior PLO bodies such as the Palestinian National Council.
Such a situation could help them take over the PLO, as Khaled Mashal already speaks about, and to claim in the future that the group speaks in the name of the Palestinian people.
At the end of the day, Hamas will want to be both inside and outside," says Prof. Mishal. And Harari continues: "they will try to portray themselves as if they are some sort of Sinn Fein, as if their political wing and military one are somehow unconnected. But this is only 'as if'."
Trouble on the horizon
Overall, Harari's prediction for 2006 is not optimistic.
"We are headed for a year of instability with a high potential for deterioration, and the chances to prevent that deterioration will go significantly down with Hamas' entry into the political system.
"If violence resumes, there is a good chance we will see a 'Ballistic Intifada' in which the Palestinians fire rockets from the northern West Bank.
"In addition, the Egyptian-Gaza border is wide open, weapons enter freely into the Gaza Strip and no one in the foreseeable future is going to disarm these groups, so anarchy will continue," he says.
Want some piece of optimism to take away? Perhaps we can take heart in the fact that this time the Palestinian leadership will actually represent a larger portion of the populace than it has up to now.
"If at Oslo we made a deal with someone who represented far less than half the people, Now we will have a Palestinian leadership that represents more than half.
Maybe the Palestinians will try to rally around one unifying figure, and if no – at least we will know where we stand.
"That's also something," Harari."
