It may be Clio, the muse of history, or perhaps the angel guarding Israel, but in a pivotal coincidence Putin's invasion of Ukraine joins the "framework paper" and the "security arrangements" Obama and Kerry are offering Israel.
According to the framework paper, the US will vouch for the Israeli security, and in fact existence, with security arrangements in Judea and Samaria supervised by the Americans, perhaps NATO, and perhaps other foreign forces, as far as your imagination will take you.
Correspondingly, in 1994 an agreement was signed in Budapest between Ukraine and US president Bill Clinton, British Prime Minister John Major and Russian President Boris Yeltsin, to remove the nuclear weapons from Ukraine to Russia. In return, the three senior leaders promised, with their personal signature, to guarantee and protect Ukraine's borders and security.
And now, the strategic Crimea peninsula has already been conquered by the Russians, Ukraine is crying for help and waving the paper from Budapest, but no one has come or will come to its help. Not the Americans, who won't put a single one of their soldiers in danger, not the British, not NATO and not the West. Ukraine has been abandoned to its fate, whether Putin wants to continue to destroy it militarily and economically or not. But it won't receive military aid.
Papers in the airThat is how the West betrayed Ukraine, and in fact betrayed the agreement it signed with it. And at the exact same time, the same US is offering us its security guarantee in Judea and Samaria. There is no greater coincidence than this one, but now everyone understands what an American security promise is worth and what dubious "security arrangements" Kerry's paper is offering. It's a paper, just like it was with Ukraine. In both cases, papers in the air.
Barack Obama is trying to fight Putin economically, perhaps to deter him. But what kind of deterrence will be possible against violent jihadist gangs which will take over the territory immediately after a disastrous IDF withdrawal from the Judea and Samaria territories? The situation there will be exactly like in Syria, but over Tel Aviv, Ben-Gurion Airport, Haifa and Jerusalem.
Is the US succeeding in doing something in Syria? Judea and Samaria will not be Gaza, John Kerry stated this week from the AIPAC podium. And how exactly will he prevent that? Will Washington send thousands of its soldiers to fight and get killed for the Israelis in the alleys of Jenin? After all, they made a commitment to Ukraine too. Words and agreements floating in the air.
So would the Americans be so kind as to fold the shameful security arrangements they are "offering" Israel?
They should first free the Crimea peninsula from the Russians, lift the siege off Ukraine, rebuild their reliability which collapsed this week, and only then return to Israel, not to mention the fact that the extent of threats over Israel is much bigger.
Stability will only be guaranteed with a permanent IDF presence on the ground. Any other arrangement means suffering and a constant threat for all people involved, both Jews and Arabs.