Wednesday's attack doesn’t point to deterrence, but to mafia-style 'score settling'
Photo: EPA
Israel's deterrence has long faded from the world
Op-ed: We cannot destroy states and large terror organizations. We can hurt them, we can inflict a lot of damage on them, we can postpone the war and the next battle, but there is no war that can end all wars.
Political leaders and military commanders like to use one word: "Deterrence." Or three words: "They are scared!"
The truth is that the term "deterrence" has long faded from the world. The State of Israel and the IDF have other tools, but deterrence is not one of them. The deterrence was lost 40 years ago in the Yom Kippur War. What deterred the Egyptian and Syrian presidents from sending their armies to launch a war on Israel? What deterred the suicide bombers in the second intifada from repeatedly bombing buses with their passengers and themselves? What deterred Hezbollah fighters from attacking on IDF convoy on Wednesday?
"They" refers to everyone: Hezbollah and Hamas, Syria and the Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra and Fatah. They are all in the same boat.
The repeated argument is that everyone is afraid of the IDF and the State of Israel, everyone is deterred, everyone will think twice and three times before they harm the IDF's soldiers or the citizens of the State of Israel.
Mount Dov Attack
Ron Ben-Yishai
Analysis: Hezbollah is not in a position to carry out a massive revenge attack for the killing of its senior officials on the Golan last week, and in Israel, political considerations take center stage.
It turned out that Hebzollah in Lebanon – even before the first Lebanon War and definitely before the second one – and Hamas in Gaza held fire and didn't attack us because they were preparing for a battle and a war.
Hezbollah is unimpressed by the warnings issued by the prime minister, the defense ministers and the chiefs of staff (Photo: Reuters)
Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, and it is only collecting more and more. It is unimpressed by the warnings issued by the prime minister, the defense ministers and the chiefs of staff, although the organization's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, said after the Second Lebanon War that had he known that the kidnapping of IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev would lead to a war in Lebanon and to huge destruction in Beirut's Dahiya Quarter, he would not have ordered such an operation. So what if he said that?
And Israel is celebrating that statement as if Hezbollah has waved the white flag a long time ago. The fact is that it prepared a combative lineup in the Golan not because it was afraid of the IDF and of Israel, but because it was preparing to attack Israel at the time that best meets its needs. So where is the deterrence?
Wednesday's attack on an IDF convoy and the killing of two of our soldiers doesn’t point to any deterrence either, but to mafia-style "score settling": You hurt us – we'll hurt you.
What can we do, therefore, in order to destroy those who want to destroy us? First of all, we must know and internalize that we cannot destroy states and large terror organizations. We can hurt them, we can inflict a lot of damage on them, we can postpone the war and the next battle, but there is no war that can end all wars. So what is happening today and or what will happen tomorrow in Lebanon is just another chapter, page or line in the book of bloody history between us.
That doesn't comfort us of course, and it won’t make us dance, but it's the absolute truth and we must know it. To be continued.
