For Obama and Israel, the party is over
Analysis: Now that he is free of electoral pressures and has been challenged by Netanyahu, Obama is making it clear to Israel and its supporters that the presidential treatment of the Palestinian issue is about to take on a much more aggressive attitude.
Dr. Malley is the complete opposite of Dennis Ross when it comes to the peace process. He gave Israel a hard time over its part in the failure of the talks in the Bill Clinton era, and he believes that a dialogue with Hamas is crucial in order to reach a comprehensive agreement with the Palestinians. It's no wonder that the Jewish establishment in the US was afraid of him. Although Obama wanted him in the White House, he was forced to take into account the campaign waged by the Jewish community leaders against his appointment.
But now that he is free of electoral pressures and has been challenged by Netanyahu, Obama is making it clear to Israel and to its supporters that the party is over. The presidential treatment of the Palestinian issue in the next two years is about to take on a much more aggressive attitude.
Israel, on the other hand, is for some reason developing a world view which maintains that the president is quickly approaching the status of a "lame duck." There are those who claim that he is already being discounted in Washington. And anyway, in three months' time, the Democratic Party will begin the primary election process to elect its next presidential candidate – and from that moment on, Obama is history. All eyes will be turned towards Hillary Clinton's election headquarters.
So we shouldn’t get excited, people here are saying. We should try to get through the next three months quietly, establish a government, and then we will anyway be able to torpedo anything he decides on.
When it comes to domestic issues, with the current Congress, it's true that Obama will be unable to pass any legislation. But in terms of foreign policy, Obama has decided to invest the little political credit he has left in "bringing world peace" and leaving a mark on the pages of history. One of his main efforts is where everyone else has failed: The Middle East, and mainly the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
There are now two channels of action on the desk of the White House's Middle East department. The first is the "European initiative," which is working on a proposal to the United Nations Security Council for a permanent solution in the Middle East. The Europeans are currently devising two working papers. One talks about a "lean decision," which sets a timetable for the end of the occupation.
The second formula, the "fatter" one, is much more detailed and sets the parameters for an agreement. This formula meets most of the Palestinians' territorial and political demands, gives them an independent state within the 1967 borders with a capital in Jerusalem. On the other hand, it takes Israel's security considerations into account – including the demand that the Palestinians won't flood Israel with refugees – and demands that the Palestinians will recognize the Jewish state. The Palestinians had demanded from the Americans a permanent agreement which would be implemented within two years, while the European formula talks about three years of negotiations before the implementation.
The Americans have no intention of addressing the documents taking shape in Europe until after the elections in Israel. Only when the identity of government of the new Israeli government becomes clear, the Americans will delve deep into the documents so that they won't have to – when the time comes – veto the European proposal, even if they don’t vote for it.
The second channel lying on the table is also waiting for the Israeli election results. It is a renewal of the American peace initiative, which will have behind it a very skilled, determined person, who isn't very fond of the current government: The president's new man in the Middle East.
Israeli officials believe that Obama will be unable to ignore the views of Hillary Clinton, who appears to be the leading candidate for president. And Hillary Clinton does have to take the electoral component into account, and she definitely has a different approach towards the State of Israel.
And so people here are living in an illusion, based on the hope that Mrs. Clinton – even if she isn't elected – will emasculate Obama's initiatives. I doubt, however, that Obama – after reading in Clinton's book what she thinks about his term – feels any commitment to consider her opinions and political needs.
