Israeli officials doubt furiously the latest events that have been unfolding in the Palestinian Authority – the ceasefire, Hamas’s candidacy in the Palestinian legislative elections and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s peace efforts.
Some are rushing to develop all sorts of theories about widespread peace, restoration of Palestinian cities, etc. But on what firm facts are they basing these assumptions?
The head of intelligence is warning that the Palestinians and all their factions are currently busy waging a rapid arms race and filling the ranks, which have very much dwindled during the army’s busier months, before the death of Yasser Arafat.
He says Hamas is making great efforts to smuggle Qassam rocket launchers from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank.
In Cairo, the Palestinian factions say they are ready to accept “calm” for “several months,” based on their demands and conditions, but have absolutely ruled out a complete, signed ceasefire
in front of Egypt, who would bind them to one.
Israel is looking at a concerning picture is becoming clearer and clearer, one that shows a devious and sophisticated Hamas pulling Islamic Jihad along for the ride.
Hamas’s position at this stage, when both Israel and Abbas are giving what we hope is feasible, is to continue their struggle against them.
Hamas is winning full immunity. Abbas agrees to let Hamas take part in the upcoming Palestinian legislative elections
– which Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak would never have believed, based on fears of an Islamic group’s victory).
Israel agreed to release Palestinian prisoners
and pull out of Palestinian territories. The process is already underway, as the army left the West Bank town of Jericho
on Wednesday and plans to also quit all of the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank.
The Palestinians may also release men from Hamas and other factions from their prisons. This is an attractive package that will be handed over to Hamas if it promises to show restraint for several months and maintain calm.
This would allow Hamas to present Israel’s dismantling of Jewish settlements
as its own historic victory, decide when it feels like renewing is fighting and then do so on its own, more desirable terms, tactically and symbolically.
If Hamas takes control of the Palestinian parliament in six months, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be painted in brand new colors – colors that have religious undertones rather than national ones.
The army and other security officials see with hooded eyes how Israel’s accomplishments are dwindling, based on new understandings. They see how Israel’s enemies are regrouping in the framework of their new immunity.
But the Israeli government and public still have hope – hope for peace, for a better future and for economic prosperity.
They long so much for hope that they simply do not see clearly the facts before their eyes.
But we’ve been down that road before. Beware: Another conspiracy lies before us.
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