Shinui's big chance

Recent intra-Likud tensions and increasing talk about the ruling party's possible split, as significant as they are in and of themselves, highlight a far deeper shift within Israel's political landscape. Old definitions quickly become meaningless, and old structures grow increasingly fragmented as the local political map moves away from traditional battle lines and assumes a starkly different shape. Only 15 years ago, the lines dividing the left- and right-wing here were readily apparent and easily understood: The Right was staunch in its commitment to "Greater Israel" dreams, while the Left chose to hang on to the "Land for Peace" mantra. 'Father' of settlements 'mother' of all pullouts Much has changed since then. A left-wing coalition led by late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin signed a deal with the Palestinians that included the handover of West Bank towns, only to see Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led government strike more agreements and transfer more land to the PA, most notably the town of Hebron. Later, Ehud Barak's Labor-led coalition's openness to additional concessions shattered in the face of rampant Palestinian violence. Indeed, Barak's message today hinges not on striking further deals, but rather, completing the West Bank security fence that would separate "us" from "them." Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, the "father of the settlements," is preparing to implement the mother of all pullouts (so far at least) by unilaterally evacuating Gaza Strip and northern West Bank communities, in a bid to make Israel "better off." 'Most Israelis increasingly shunning political extremes' Many observers have noted the left-wing's collapse in the wake of Barak's failed peace overtures, which pushed the majority of Israelis into a less reconciliatory mood. Curiously however, a similar decline has also maligned local right-wing parties. If we accept the dictum that the current Likud is implementing what are essentially left-wing policies, we are left with only two "true-blue" rightist factions - the National Union and the (rapidly disintegrating) National Religious Party - which combine for 13 Knesset seats out of 120. And while it is true that a significant number of Likud Knesset members subscribe to the "classic" rightist ideology, their party would not be occupying 40 Knesset seats were they the ones leading it. Indeed, it seems most Israelis are increasingly shunning both political extremes and moving into the warm womb of a continuously expanding center. On the face of it, such development should hugely favor one political force in particular - the self-declared center party, Shinui (whose name in English means, "Change".) Shinui lacks clear security policy With centrist voters increasingly disillusioned by the internal bickering and growing irrelevance of Labor, and increasingly confused by the fragmented Likud, Shinui appears to be the natural choice for a growing public. Yet despite the party's impressive showing in the last election, recent polls have not shown any significant boost in public support levels. The question is, why? Several reasons may serve to explain this reality, yet one that appears particularly poignant is Shinui's reliance on a harsh anti-religious platform to curry favor among voters. Although the grievances voiced by the party strongly resonate among some groups here, namely middle-class Israelis, it has been long held that Israeli elections are ultimately decided in the security sphere, rather than economic or social affairs. And here comes Shinui's greatest weakness - despite its election campaign pledges to serve as the balancing force between right-wing radicalism and leftist defeatism, it has failed to craft a clear policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The current uncertainty over the fate of the state budget, which marks the last hurdle before the disengagement plan's implementation, presents Shinui with a golden opportunity, which it has so far failed to exploit. Little political risk for Shinui Indeed, by forcefully and unconditionally coming out in support of the budget, while expressing unequivocal commitment to pushing the pullout forward, the party would signal that it is no longer a second-rate outfit, but rather, a major force concerned with the major issues of the day. Such declarations also come with little political risk, as polls have shown a solid majority of Israelis support disengagement, thus allowing Shinui to take a stance without alienating most centrist voters. Indeed, such a move could ingrain the party's paramount role in facilitating the pullout in the public's psyche. Moreover, by agreeing to support the budget and "swallow" extra funds granted to religious parties, Shinui would also signal its growing maturity and ability to move beyond what many view as its "anti-religious hatred," in favor of far loftier goals. Hence, Shinui Chairman Yosef "Tommy" Lapid, known for his keen political instincts, should not waste any time in declaring his party is ready to back the budget unconditionally. By doing so, he will push Shinui closer to filling the growing vacuum in Israel's political spectrum.

Shinui's big chance

Country's self-declared center party is faced with golden chance