Hamas as Hizbullah

Tuesday's rocket attack on Sderot is the latest indication of Lebanon's Hizbullah growing influence in the Palestinian territories. Despite Hizbullah's landslide victory in Lebanon's parliamentary elections Monday, many observers believe the organization is in crisis. By its own definition, the organization's raison d'etre was to drive Israel out of the security zone in south Lebanon it held for 18 years following the 1982 Lebanon War. But Israel has been out of Lebanon for five years, prompting many Lebanese to question the continued existence of the country's last armed militia. In order to justify itself, the group has invented the occasional new "cause" - such as the Shabaa farms area of Mount Dov, officially part of the Golan Heights but considered by Hizbullah as part of "occupied" Lebanon - in order to continue the fight against Israel. Still, leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has been careful not to cross red lines that would provoke a harsh Israeli response against south Lebanon, especially in the lead up to Monday's election. Hamas as Hizbullah Similarly, Hamas views Israel's impending exit from Gaza as a potential threat. For two generations, Palestinian representatives have consistently sold the message that the "occupation" is responsible for all wrongs in Palestinian society and is the source of a great deal of international support. The possibility that this claim may no longer have currency is cause for more than a bit of trepidation on the part of Palestinian groups, Hamas included. In addition, Hamas leaders themselves say they drew great moral strength from Hizbullah's "victory" over Israel, and believe it was the terror campaign that drove once-hawkish Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to turn and run. By continuing to attack, Hamas hopes to strengthen its claim that Israel is withdrawing from Gaza under fire. But like Nasrallah, Hamas leaders are being careful not to provoke Israel too strongly. The organization believes a steady enough flow of "light" attacks can turn Israeli public opinion against the withdrawal while preventing a large-scale Israeli response that would anger many Gaza supporters. Also, Israel defense officials are nearly unanimous in their assessment that Hamas has used the four-month-old "period of quiet" to re-arm and recover from Israel's two-year offensive that left the group's ability to strike civilian targets severely reduced. Another motivation driving Hamas' resumed attacks are the coming Palestinian elections, pushed off by Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas from mid-July to later in the year. By agreeing to a non-binding "period of calm" (called "tahdia" in Arabic) at Sharm el-Sheikh in February Hamas presented itself to Israel and many foreign supporters as a legitimate political party, another similarity to Hizbullah. But despite, or perhaps because of, the group's new "political" face, the organization knows its popularity amongst Gaza voters is based largely - though not solely - on terror attacks. This is the reason Hamas leaders were careful at Sharm to reject a binding ceasefire, called hudna in Arabic. In this light, Tuesday's attack on Sderot is little more than electioneering. At the end of the day, Tuesday's attack - like last month's barrage on Gush Katif during the Independence Day holiday - has potentially created a win-win situation for Hamas. If the group can manage to prevent Israel from withdrawing from Gaza, the group will maintain it's stated underlying principle - i.e. fighting Israel's "occupation." On the other hand, if Israel withdraws despite the attacks, Hamas is sure to claim "victory" in Gaza, and can be expected to redouble efforts to ensure a similar result in the West Bank. In either event, the coming months will require delicate handling from the defense and political establishment. - Andrew Friedman is an editor at Ynetnews.com

Hamas as Hizbullah

Palestinian terrorists are gaining strength, strategy from their northern brothers-in-arms, writes Andrew Friedman