Netanyahu - next prime minister or doomed for failure?
Photo: AP
Sharon and Netanyahu prepare for showdown
Photo: AP
Bibi's indecision recipe for disaster
Is Netanyahu doomed by inability to choose a constituency?
Benjamin Netanyahu is one of the most capable figures ever to set foot in the swamp that is Israeli politics. He is a brilliant orator, educated, and able to draft and successfully implement controversial policies, as demonstrated by his tenure as finance minister.
Is he the man who so convincingly speaks out against rewarding the Palestinians and turning Gaza into a terror base, or the former prime minister who did not hesitate to hug Arafat, not to mention hand over Hebron to his Palestinian Authority?
Yigal Walt is News Editor of Ynetnews.comYet in addition to those fine traits, Netanyahu has been the subject of much criticism and disparagement. On Monday, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon characterized him as an "anxious, tense man," slamming the new-old candidate for Likud leadership - and the country's premiership - as woefully unfit for the job.
Not everyone may share Sharon's unflattering assessment (then again, not everyone shares such inherent contempt and distaste for Bibi,) yet most observers are in agreement when it comes to the former prime minister's flaws: He is unstable, they say, fickle even. You can never quite know where he stands, and who the real Bibi is.
Bibi Speaks
Attila Somfalvi
Former Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announces Tuesday he will be running for Likud party leadership; says, ‘the man who received our votes to lead the party in the Likud spirit has turned his back on us. Sharon has abandoned the Likud’s principles and chose the way of the left’
Politicians often count on the short memory of their constituents (in Israel, the problem appears more acute than in most other countries.) Indeed, Netanyahu's impressive ability to turn around the economy from a state of near-disaster to a living-and-breathing organism earned him much praise and made many forget about the Bibi who made a mess of his term at the country's helm.
Yet to Netanyahu's misfortune, the seemingly inherent inability to decide what he stands for may come to haunt him at the worst possible junction, as he prepares to take the Likud, and in turn the country, by storm.
Courting the wrong crowd?
Bibi's Likud leadership run, which for all intents and purposes began the day he submitted his stunning resignation letter three weeks ago, has placed him firmly in the right-wing corner of Israel's body politic.
Netanyahu himself has made some efforts not to align himself too closely with the far right, or the settlers for that matter, rejecting calls to lead the anti-pullout struggle in its late stages and choosing instead a comfortable retreat in New York.
Yet the direct challenge to Sharon, Bibi's increasingly heated rhetoric regarding the disengagement's probable (catastrophic) outcomes, and the group of Likud Knesset members that at present backs his candidacy - most being second-rate politicians yet rather staunch rightists - guarantee that in the eyes of the public he will be perceived as the new prince of the Right (or at least that part of the Right that feels the disengagement was wrong.)
This is not a problem in and of itself, as Israel is currently home to many disgruntled rightists who feel Sharon has turned his back on the very core of their beliefs (this is even truer in the powerful Likud Central Committee.)
The problem, for Bibi at least, is that for the past two years, in his capacity as finance minister, he has courted precisely that sector of the public that condemns the far right as anathema.
Indeed, Netanyahu's bold steering of the economic helm, including the introduction of far-reaching reforms and some welcome tax relief, won him much praise from Israel's middle-upper class and business elite, where most voters lean to the Center or Left.
Many commentators took this to be a deliberate, clever maneuver aimed at making Netanyahu a more attractive commodity in the eyes of centrist voters, who have increasingly become deciders of fates come election time.
Yet with his stunning resignation and thrust to remove Sharon from power, Netanyahu is quickly alienating exactly those who only yesterday cheered on as he cut another tax, introduced another reform, and reduced unemployment by yet another percentage point.
Polls not looking good
What's worse for Netanyahu, history has shown that elections in Israel come down to questions of national security, with candidates winning or losing based on their perceived attitude to the Palestinians, not the stock market. Israelis may indeed appreciate lower DVD prices, but at the end of the day are likelier to cast their vote in favor of the man who took Israel out of Gaza.
And the news gets worse for Bibi: Praise for his economic policies was tainted by much criticism, mostly over growing poverty and increasing gaps between rich and poor. Many of those hit hardest by Bibi's cuts to government allowances are – you guessed it – longtime Likud supporters, who may now decide to explore other options.
The polls are already starting to hint at this grim reality, and they are looking bad for both Netanyahu and the Likud. A survey presented on Channel 1 Tuesday evening showed that a Likud led by Sharon would garner 28 Knesset seats (down from the 40 currently held by the ruling party,) while a Likud led by Netanyahu would only win 18.
Netanyahu is already well familiar with such lowly figures: When he was trounced by Labor's Ehud Barak in the 1999 elections he left Likud with only 19 Knesset seats. It will certainly be a case of cruel irony if he managed to do that again.
It appears Netanyahu is set to fail exactly where Sharon has achieved an impressive triumph. The prime minister's ability to maintain Likud's image as a nationalist party (or at least a moderate party that is not Labor,) coupled with declarations hinting at a willingness to make "painful concessions," won a big victory for Likud in the polls last time around.
Now it appears Bibi is doing exactly the opposite, namely pushing away centrist voters with his rightist rhetoric, while being unable to fully compensate with strong right-wing support, thanks in part to his failure to act against the disengagement sooner and the general post-pullout mistrust of Likud prevalent in the rightist camp.
However, there is still one factor that can come to Netanyahu's aid as elections approach - the Qassams and suicide bombers of Hamas and Co. If only some of the grim predictions Bibi has been promising will materialize, the backlash could push many to Bibi's corner.
Yet the problem here is different: If things will indeed become that bad, the battle for the country's leadership will likely be the least of our concerns.
