Policies will continue: Sharon
Photo: Moshe Milner, GPO
Ensuring Jewish democracy: security fence
Photo: Dan Balilti
Disastrous status quo
With or without Sharon, eventually the Land of Israel will be divided
Avner Shimoni, the former head of the Gaza Beach Regional Council, said in a TV interview last week that with Ariel Sharon's departure from the political arena, the Kadima Party will disappear and the country will go back to its traditional right- and left-wing division.
Elections coming
Despite Sharon's medical condition, his Kadima party has remained a public favorite, a Yedioth Ahronoth survey reveals; with Olmert at the helm, the party is projected to win 39 seats, Peres-led Kadima would receive 42
This is surely a dream, far removed from the reality of Israel's political map. Kadima will still carry these elections, not because it has some general worldview (it doesn't), but rather because it meets the call of the hour: pursuing the prime minister's plan to divide the Land of Israel, apparently unilaterally.
Different perceptions
For years Israeli society has been divided between two basic world views, stemming from differing interpretations of our situation and the future of our relations with the Palestinians.
On one hand, the right-wing, headed by the settlers, believe there is no chance for a peace agreement or any meaningful political deal. Therefore, they say Israel has all the time in the world to build new settlements on every spare dunam in Judea, Samaria and Gaza.
On the other hand, the left believes there is a chance for an agreement, and therefore there is no need to get so excited about settlements. They will be evacuated when peace arrives.
Right-wing realism
There is no question the right read the political map more correctly. There is no peace agreement, primarily because the Palestinian leadership refuses to forego claims to Jerusalem and demands for Palestinian refugees to return to Israel.
We, too, have failed to implement more than a few sections of the Olso Agreement.
The rejection of proposals by Ehud Barak and Bill Clinton, together with the Palestinian decision to begin a murderous intifada, made clear that it would be more difficult, if at all possible, to reach a peace agreement in the area.
This situation would seem to be more comfortable for the Whole Land of Israel faithful, especially the settlers. But here we have a historic switch.
Disastrous status quo
More and more, Israelis have come to realize that the status quo is a disaster for Israel and will lead eventually to the end of Israel as a Jewish, democratic country. By maintaining one country between the river and the sea, Jews will soon become a minority in their own country, or will cease to be a democracy that grants equal rights to the Palestinian majority.
If you ask Knesset member Azmi Bishara, for example, what he thinks about this, he'll tell you he prefers not to establish a Palestinian state. Instead, he'd prefer to grant equal political rights to everybody between the river and the sea. That would mean the end of the Jewish state.
The threatening demographic forecast, the absence of a Palestinian partner and American pressure to find some solution brought Ariel Sharon to the only possible political conclusion: The land must be divided, unilaterally.
The fence's route is still subject to different considerations, mainly security and demographic, and even those who support dividing the land still argue about the route the fence should take.
But they all seem to agree that a reasonable division, even if the Palestinians don't agree, would be preferable to the current situation, which would spell the end of Jewish, democratic Israel.
Sick and tired
A clear majority in Israel is sick and tired of the debate that has been going on here for a generation: return to the 1967 borders or the Whole Land of Israel.
Unilateral withdrawal will apparently not bring peace, but this is the answer currently acceptable to most Israelis. This is also the only message Kadima has to offer.
Therefore, with or without Sharon, a large percentage of Israeli citizens will vote for Kadima.
