A call to hold us back
Expanding ground assault in Lebanon depends on whether Israel is able to reach agreement in UN Security Council likely to lead to diplomatic process
Despite the green light given by the IDF, the political echelons are prepared to go to great lengths to prevent the expansion of the ground assault in Lebanon.
Olmert and Peretz received a whistle from the cabinet on Wednesday: When the time is right they will blow it, thus marking the beginning of the military assault up to the Litani River – however, if the diplomatic efforts become ripe for a ceasefire, Olmert and Peretz will be able to blow the closing whistle that would mark the end of the current campaign.
We may surmise that Olmert and Peretz will prefer giving the diplomatic process a chance rather than rushing to order the IDF to deepen its assault inside Lebanon, beyond the boundaries of the operation being carried out there for the past month.
In the decision to enter deeper into Lebanon, Israel is in fact calling on the world to: "hold us back."
At a meeting held in the cabinet this week, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni expressed her feelings.
"I am being called upon to approve the campaign while my hands are tied. Should I vote against this campaign, I will be weakening our power of deterrence. But I am telling the army, here and now, that it does not have a month or two for carrying out the campaign presented before us, as you have asked. You may have just a day or two. It all depends on whether we are able to reach an agreement in the UN Security Council, an agreement that would lead to a diplomatic process. You the commanders, have to be prepared to change course."
Livni's point of view makes the allocation of additional time to military moves irrelevant. According to Livni, as expressed in private talks, the "change of direction" campaign exhausted itself after the first three days.
Blowing the closing whistle
Livini is seeking a situation whereby, when the time comes to blow the closing whistle on this war, Israel would be able to chalk up political gains that would lead to the purging of Hizbullah from Israel's northern border, and cripple its military and political power in Lebanon.
A high level political source warned that every additional day of war in Lebanon adversely affects Europe's willingness to send their forces to the south of Lebanon. The Europeans will tell Israel: If your army, which is the most powerful in the Middle East, is finding it so difficult to defeat the Hizbullah – then how do you expect us to do the job?
The prime minister gave the defense minister, the chief-of-staff and the army his overwhelming support this week. "We have nothing but infinite love, respect and admiration for our military," he said at the cabinet meeting.
Up to the Litani River
Olmert deliberated over the two options presented before him. Former Defense Minister, Shaul Mofaz, suggested that the army quickly embark on the campaign towards the Litani River, flank the Hizbullah from the north and push it south. Mofaz's colleagues are comparing this option to the crossing of the Suez Canal and the blockading of the Egyptian Third Army during the Yom Kippur War.
Olmert finally adopted the second option. Namely, the army's proposal to advance north and to cleanse the area of Katyusha launchers up to the Litani River. Olmert gave his consent despite estimates that the campaign may cause hundreds of IDF casualties.
Olmert knows that the day after the second war in Lebanon, he will have to answer many difficult questions in reference to the way it was run.
Nonetheless, he asked his ministers to stop arguing and preaching and to show signs of unity because that's what the people expect of them – the people in the bomb shelters, and those whose loved ones are fighting in Lebanon.
