Long road to elections

As anticipated, the Winograd Commission's dramatic announcement Tuesday sent the political establishment into frenzy. Benjamin Netanyahu has begun counting the "rebel" Knesset members from the Kadima party, and is even talking about a replacement for Ehud Olmert.

Even Coalition Chairman Avigdor Itzchaky admitted that coalition Knesset members are beginning to talk about the day after Olmert. The anticipation that the personal conclusions in the interim report due to be published next month will oust Olmert is apparently premature, and is primarily based on speculations, or alternately, on the opposition's wishful thinking.

Olmert already survived the outburst of protest in wake of the second Lebanon war, and the Prime Minister's Office conveyed a placating message: Resignation is still far off.

Members of the Winograd Commission have not yet sent the prime minister and defense minister letters of caution. The letters of caution are aimed at allowing the two key persons being investigated - Olmert and Peretz - a chance to defend themselves.

The hope that commission members would be very firm against the two may turn out to be false. Personal conclusions against the two may not force Olmert and Peretz to resign during the interim stage of the report, and certainly not before they are given the right to self defense.

Justice Winograd, so it seems, will be a little more cautious than his colleague, State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrass. In such a case Olmert would remain in office until publication of the final report due in July 2007, and Peretz would hang on to the defense portfolio at least until internal party elections are held at the end of May. Peretz, incidentally, has already announced that if the commission's report includes personal conclusions against him - he will resign.

Bibi eyeing Kadima split

The political establishment is living in virtual reality. Olmert is operating within a paradoxical situation: A strong and stable coalition on the one hand with zero public support on the other. Knesset members do not want to dissolve the Knesset less than a year after elections. Too many parties and Knesset members have much to lose: 29 Kadima legislators, the Pensioner's party, the Labor party and Israel Our Home. The religious Shas party is not eager to go to the polls either.

Netanyahu is the only one who has something to gain - he is the great beneficiary of the second Lebanon war. The man who suffered a heavy blow during the last elections and led the Likud to 12 seats is now the leading candidate for heading the government. Netanyahu, a man of the polls, revels in the polls published in the press every weekend. But even he knows that it would be a difficult task to dissolve the Knesset and to hold early elections.

Netanyahu, therefore, has taken the "election diversion" route: Namely, a split in the Kadima ranks and an attempt to create a 61 Knesset member bloc to support his candidacy for the premiership.

The political establishment is in turmoil. The seemingly dramatic announcement by the Winograd Commission Tuesday fuelled another political storm, and it is hard to tell how it will culminate. The estimate that Israel will be facing new elections next month sounds unreasonable. Therefore, those preparing for the event would do well to exercise a little more patience.