Don't count on Saudi plan
As it turns out, Saudi king apparently doesn't back peace initiative
It may well be assumed that the Olmert government, which is currently under great pressure at home, will seek a way to revive the diplomatic process so as, among other reasons, to also create a political agenda. It will seek a legitimate political initiative as long as it is premised on accurately reading regional reality.
Prior to the publication of the Winograd Report, senior Israeli officials praised the Saudi initiative despite reservations regarding its content. The Saudi initiative was backed by the Bush Administration, a fact which influenced Israeli considerations.
Yet something strange happened during the last visit to the Middle East by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: When Rice praised the Saudi initiative, which calls for full Israeli withdrawal in exchange for "normalization" of ties between Israel and the Arab world, the Saudi king cancelled his participation at a festive dinner with President Bush at the White House and condemned the American invasion of Iraq, calling it an "illegal foreign occupation."
Recently Abdullah also refused to meet with Iraqi Prime minister Nuri al-Maliki and thus struck the Bush administration another blow, as al-Maliki is thought to be a pro-American leader. In face of the series of mishaps in the relations between the US and Saudi Arabia, Martin Indyk recently wrote an article in the Washington Post where he argued that the honeymoon between the Saudis and Bush was over.
False hope
The obvious question being asked is how can the US lead a diplomatic maneuver between Israel and Saudi Arabia when relations between Riyadh and Washington are so fragile?
Moreover, it's surprising that Rice presented a Saudi stance that is open to negotiations with Israel while the Saudi king is making harsh anti-Western statements. Apparently, the person who promoted the Saudi initiative to the American administration was Prince Bandar bin Sultan, currently the national security advisor and previously the former Saudi ambassador to Washington for 22 years.
It was clear to anyone monitoring developments in Saudi Arabia that Bandar had problematic relations with King Abdullah. Firstly, Bandar is the son of Crown Prince Sultan, who comes from a different faction of the Saudi royal family - former King Fahd's Sudeiri faction. Secondly, Bandar failed in recent years in leading Saudi PR in Washington: Therefore, in wake of the events of 9/11 Abdullah dispatched his then-political advisor Adel Jubair to appear on American TV.
A report in the New York Times on April 29th revealed that Bandar did not present Saudi positions that reflect his uncle King Abdullah's views, but rather, his own personal views. According to reports in the Israeli media it was Bandar who had met with Olmert in Jordan several months ago.
Indeed, similar to Israel, Saudi Arabia would also like to curb Iranian influence in the region, yet it is not prepared to strengthen moderate Palestinian elements on Hamas' back or to enter open dialogue with Israel. Thus, the hope that lies in the adoption of the Saudi initiative may prove to be false.
Dr Dore Gold heads the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
