Road Map to nowhere
Both US, Israel may be interested in abandoning Road Map, adopting Arab plan
Israel has no foreign policy, only domestic politics, Henry Kissinger once said. Ehud Olmert's trip to Washington next week and the scheduled meeting with President Bush endorse this statement.
Olmert and his advisors view this trip as an opportunity for changing the political agenda in Israel and boosting the chances of persuading the Labor party to remain in the cabinet. The American Administration, on its part, will try to leverage the visit to prove that it does have a Middle East policy, and even if no progress has been made in Iraq – at least there is a "political horizon" on the Israeli-Palestinian front.
Since it may be assumed that the US Administration will treat the Syrian "charade" in a more sober way than it is being treated in various circles in Israel, it would be reasonable to assume that the talks are likely to focus on the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
In this context, there are two clear coordinates: President Bush's road map and the Arab peace plan (the Saudi initiative.) The two parties may of course decide, even if just for the sake of appearances, to revive other issues as well, such as the proposal to inject hormones into the flaccid Mahmoud Abbas rule – however, both Bush and Olmert know that this isn't the most important issue.
Of course Washington is well aware of Olmert's frailty, but it views this situation as particularly convenient for achieving results. In this case there is apparently no difference between what the US wants to promote and what Israel wishes to be told.
Notably, the road map spoke of three phases: Complete cessation of Palestinian violence and freezing of settlements in the initial phase; establishment of a Palestinian state within temporary borders in the second phase; and negotiations over the final-status agreement in the last phase. Each phase would be subjected to the completion of the former.
Minor cosmetic modifications
Since its introduction the road map has been in a deep slumber – largely because the Palestinians have made every effort to undermine the phased principle it embodies in order to coerce Israel to deal with the issues of a final-status agreement from an inferior position: Refugees, borders, settlements – and Jerusalem.
This was also the intention of Arab rulers who convened several months ago in Riyadh: To offer Israel the poisoned candy of relations (not necessarily peace), on condition that it would comply with the dictate of advance withdrawal from all territories, including Jerusalem, and that it would agree in some way or another to the Arab position on the right of return for refugees. Not a framework for negotiations, but rather, an ultimatum.
Olmert may now tell Bush that he is prepared to accept this Arab ultimatum, at least partially: Not with regards to the refugee issue, but with regards to territorial matters and the issue of Jerusalem.
Therefore, it would be no surprise if Washington issues the following statement next week: Since no progress has been made according to the guidelines of the road map, Bush and Olmert have decided to skip over the first two phases and to go straight for the final-status agreement, based on the Saudi Initiative - perhaps with minor cosmetic modifications. Indeed, it's all politics.
Zalman Shoval is a former ambassador to the US
