Why did Nasrallah yield?

Nasrallah advancing on prisoner swap because he’s pressed for achievement

Smadar Peri|Published: 05.27.08 , 09:35

While living underground, moving from one hideout to another, Nasrallah came up with the grand deal: Israel will release Lebanese, Syrian, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Palestinian prisoners with blood on their hands in exchange for the Jewish State’s abducted soldiers.

Ahead of the grandiose liberation show he planned at the Dahia neighborhood in Beirut – with Samir Kuntar to his right and Marwan Barghouti to his left – Nasrallah wanted to crown himself as the king of the Arab world. However, reality disappointed him.

For months upon months, emissaries and intermediaries dashed from Jerusalem to Beirut. Israel made it unequivocally clear all along that the Jordanian prisoners will only be handed over to Jordan and that the Palestinians will wait to the deal that would secure Gilad Shalit’s release via Egypt’s mediation.

Nasrallah’s threat to abduct more Israeli soldiers and his refusal to hand over a sign of life or medical evidence regarding the condition of captives Regev and Goldwasser further complicated the talks.

Nasrallah also attempted to spark a dispute among the Regev and Goldwasser families and the Prime Minister’s office, yet he failed to do it. Moreover, he was criticized by Lebanon’s prime minister for ruining two tourism seasons. Instead of making tens of millions of dollars through hotel and nightclub income, the Lebanese are forced to invest millions in renovation.

No celebrations at the square

The Doha agreement that led this week to the appointment of a new Lebanese president, the dialogue launched in Ankara between Israel and Syria, and the security-intelligence vacuum left behind by the unsolved assassination of Imad Mugniyah served to open Nasrallah’s eyes: The rulers are hostile to him, and his life may end via an explosive device.

So all of a sudden he is pressed for an immediate achievement. Should there be an Israeli deal with Syria, a deal with Lebanon shall follow. A deal with Damascus will force Hamas’ Khaled Mashaal and his comrades to Tehran; and a deal with Lebanon would send Nasrallah along with Mashaal.

At the end of the day, Nasrallah won’t be able to allow himself to celebrate at the square. He will make sure that Samir Kuntar is brought to him and he will attempt to inflame the spirits, while knowing that following such deal he will be even higher up on the hit list.