President Obama with predecessor Bush
Photo: Reuters
The new America
Next Israeli PM will likely not enjoy traditional intimacy with Washington
Every Knesset elections campaign was said to be, at the time, “fateful,” “decisive,” “critical,” and “historic.” And now, our turn has come to write that the Knesset elections in about two weeks are the most important, fateful, and critical ever held in the State of Israel, and most certainly in the past generation.
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Yet these words are uttered with one reservation: It could very well be that the elections that will follow the upcoming elections would truly be the most fateful and important ever. This is not a typo: We need much help from above and from the United States in order not to see another Knesset elections campaign in two years, more or less. Yet the Heavens have not been nice to us in recent years.
The Israeli prime minister who will arrive in Washington after being elected – Netanyahu, Barak, or Livni – will discover a country that is different than the one they encountered in dozens of previous trips. They will find a different Administration, and even a different Jewish community. The bastards in Washington changed the rules of the game and even informed us.
The natural tendency is to continue to “play the game” as if Obama and his administration are just like Bush and his administration, which were like Clinton and his administration in all matters pertaining to the State of Israel. After all, President Obama and the Clintons expressed their commitment to Israel etc.
However, things are not quite like that. The US is facing one of the gravest financial crises in its history, and Obama knows that at this difficult time 300 million Americans expect him to keep them out of trouble. Should he fail to find a magic formula, the great expectations will very soon turn into bitter disappointments.
Yet the 299 million Americans who do not live in Washington and do not deal with politics are convinced that the disaster has to do with oil prices (and that’s false,) connect oil to terrorism, and connect terrorism to the State of Israel. This is a convenient atmosphere for a president who needs to explain to an Israeli prime minister that things have changed. We won’t be surprised to see Malcolm Hoenlein calling the White House and being told that “we’ll call you back” yet not always getting that call.
No fans of the settlers
The Americans will also spare introductory meetings with any Israeli prime minister. Netanyahu, Barak and Livni are familiar with the entire American team, and none of its members are fans of the settlers. Mitchell, Jones, Rahm Emanuel, Dennis Ross, and mostly Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have been waiting for years now for Israel to “deliver the goods” – that is, the two-state solution and the evacuation of settlements in Judea, Samaria, and the Golan Heights.
Any Israeli prime minister will attempt to explain to the new president and its veteran administration that the State of Israel’s agenda is crowded with issues that are much more significant and existential - the Iranian nuclear threat, for example, or Hamas in the south and Hizbullah in the north. Yet this is the moment that Obama, Clinton, Mitchell and the others will be lying in wait for: There will be no solution to the Iranian nuclear problem, an existential matter for Israel, before the two-state solution’s implementation. And don’t forget the evacuation.
Any Israeli prime minister experienced in dealings with the US will try his or her luck with secret face-to-face talks, hints, and doublespeak – yet then our PM will discover that in the Obama era, the State of Israel apparently lost (and I wish to be proven wrong here) its most important weapon: The intimate ties between Washington and Jerusalem. Wonderful deeds have been undertaken in the past on the basis of this intimacy.
Against this backdrop, any Israeli prime minister will apparently have no choice but to face Israeli voters and place the evacuation of settlements at the top of the public and political agenda. Or in other words: New elections.
