Attila
Photo: Gabi Menashe
Will Kadima split?
Will Livni-Mofaz clash ultimately prompt Kadima’s demise?
A few days ago, in an upscale private function held by a well-known Israeli media figure, some of the distinguished guests bumped into a no-less distinguished female. While drinking their glasses of wine they inquired: Where are you? We don’t hear or see you. Is anyone home?
The message Tzipi Livni was hearing from her supporters, and not for the first time, was “we don’t feel you are there.” You don’t attack Netanyahu over the fundamental issues – that is, the sensitive political issues – and when you finally respond, it’s always too late. In the face of everything that is happening in the country and in the government, you merely exhaust the public with endless stories about the Kadima primaries. Instead of dealing with the Kadima swamp, you must appear more often and go on the attack more often. You must pound the table.
Failed Ultimatum
Attila Somfalvi
Kadima chairwoman says she will not bring Kadima's primaries forward, slams Mofaz's conduct
In respect to Shaul Mofaz, the Kadima chairwoman’s associates are in agreement: If he wishes to go, let’s wish him luck. Livni’s close associates have recently been telling her that the conduct of the party’s number two figure hurts Kadima and portrays it as a party preoccupied with a search for jobs, honor, and government chairs. The words used by these associates are not fit for print, yet the message is clear: Show them that you’re not scared of him. He’s pathetic, and you have to stand up for yourself.
After much hesitation, Livni realized that she must do something and rejected the ultimatum issued by Mofaz. On Monday this week, towards the end of the faction meeting at the Knesset, she made it clear to Mofaz that she simply doesn’t care about his demands. “I’m willing to hear proposals, but there will be no primaries now or in the near future,” she said.
Mofaz, who left the room even before Livni’s reprimand, heard the news through the media and was not surprised. In an act of retribution, and “coincidentally,” he immediately met with Avigdor Lieberman. The statement issued by the offices of both figures was laconic: The two dealt with political and security issues. “This meeting was scheduled almost a month ago and was unconnected to internal Kadima affairs,” a Mofaz associate said. However, only a sucker would believe that at least half the conversation was not about politics.
‘Radical leftist party’
For the time being, Mofaz is hesitating, as usual. On the one hand he dreams of becoming a prime minister. Yet he knows that he can do that, if at all, only as the head of a large party like Kadima. On the other hand, he’s getting lost on the opposition benches. He doesn’t know what to do with himself there. Netanyahu’s people smell the weakness and make sure to pour oil on the fire thorough various temptations and odd offers.
Yet despite the hints that Mofaz has 13 Kadima members in his camp, it is completely uncertain that he can indeed form a significant group. Only few people are impressed by his leadership and political skills. Meanwhile, the polls give Livni the lead among the general public. Despite the government’s stability, Livni’s position is relatively good. She did not lose any points and did not collapse in the public opinion theater.
Kadima Knesset members who in the past did not reject the possibility of quitting the party admit that for the time being Mofaz has made all the possible political mistakes. He pushed himself into a corner. “If I need to choose between him and her, I choose her,” says one of Kadima’s wooed ministers. “She’s the only alternative. The problem is that Kadima has turned into a radical leftist party, and I can’t sleep at night because of that.” Perhaps this is the reason why he too does not reject the possibility of quitting “on ideological grounds.”
The coming weeks will be critical for the future of this divided party. Emotions are expected to run high. If Mofaz has an offer, he should submit it, say senior party members among Livni’s supporters and objectors. He should put the offer on the table and let faction members vote. He did not do it for the time being, because the likelihood of formulating a majority for bringing the primaries forward is believed to be slim. Meanwhile, in recent days we have seen a few more figures joining the efforts to reach a compromise with Mofaz’s blessing. This may indicate that he is interested in calming the tensions.
Nonetheless, some of Mofaz’s close associates are warning: The big storm still lies ahead should there be no primaries. We have enough people to split the faction, and even to take the Kadima name with us.
