Hezbollah is not interested in a war it did not start after Hamas executed their plan to attack Israeli communities, the Alma Research and Education Center said in a reported published Wednesday but the Iran-backed terror group's intention to invade Israel is just a matter of time.
"The Radwan unit is fully trained and capable of launching an incursion into the Galilee at any given moment," researchers said. "Even if the majority of Hezbollah's elite forces have distanced themselves from the border, there is no change to Hezbollah's overall readiness."
Tal Beeri, head of the research department at "Alma," has been closely monitoring terrorist organizations in Lebanon for years and spearheaded the research for the position paper. He emphasizes that the crucial question within the Shiite terrorist organization is not whether to launch an attack on the Galilee with its forces but rather when to do so. According to Beeri's assessment, on October 7, Hezbollah was on the verge of deciding to execute its longstanding plan.
"In reality, on October 7, Hamas essentially 'borrowed' the infiltration plan of the Radwan unit and implemented it through its forces along the southern border with the Gaza Strip," the researchers noted in the position paper. They pointed out that Hamas embarked on this path independently of Hezbollah for reasons not yet clear. The brutal massacres and abductions they carried out essentially delayed the timing of the infiltration plan from the north. This is because Hezbollah is not keen on getting entangled with the Palestinians and becoming the "second fiddle" in a war not initiated by them.
Despite the delay, researchers at "Alma" are convinced that residents of the northern region are not adequately protected. The position paper notes that despite recent efforts by Israel to strengthen the northern border with more and more walls and surveillance measures, there are still sections along the border that have not been upgraded, potentially easing infiltration.
"The events of October 7 proved once again that any physical or technological barrier will inevitably be breached," states the position paper. "The mountainous terrain along the Lebanese border is more challenging for movement than the flat terrain along the Gaza border, but it allows for more discreet mobility. Hezbollah is well acquainted with the terrain and knows how to navigate it."
Given the widespread mobilization of IDF reserve forces deployed along the borders of Lebanon and Syria for the past eight weeks and the operational and intelligence vigilance of the military, "Alma" acknowledges that, for now, Hezbollah's element of surprise is compromised in its operational plan. However, the position paper emphasizes that "even today, at any given moment, if they choose to do so, Hezbollah can autonomously execute its infiltration plan into Israeli territory with a more limited force of the Radwan unit and a more focused area."
In response, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit stated, "The Northern Command operates tirelessly to defend the residents of the northern region. IDF forces do not allow any approach to the border area, and infrastructure renewals by Hezbollah were destroyed during the war. Additionally, any form of threat will be promptly dealt with."