A month after the general elections in Spain, political chaos reigns, and forming a new government appears to be an especially challenging task, given the results that have led to a deadlock.
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The electoral misfortunes of the far-right Vox Party have prevented Alberto Núñez, the winner from the right-wing People's Party, from forming a government. It seems that the incumbent prime minister from the Socialists, Pedro Sánchez, who lost, has a higher chance of forming a government.
The unlikely kingmaker in Spain's intricate political landscape appears to be none other than Carles Puigdemont, the exiled leader of the Catalan Junts party. In exile, he will wait until the last moment to decide whether to support Sánchez, under his and his party’s stringent conditions.
This fact is causing significant unease in Madrid – a politician who has fled from Spanish law is the one who will determine Spain's fate. This comes as Junts won six seats in the elections and could provide Sánchez with the key to achieving the majority needed to form a government.
Puigdemont fled to Belgium in 2017 to avoid prosecution after holding an illegal referendum and the declaration of independence by the regional Catalan parliament.
Spain recently lifted Puigdemont’s diplomatic immunity as a member of the European Parliament, meaning Spain can request his extradition at any point. "One day you are deciding to form the government of Spain, the next day that same Spain can order your arrest," Puigdemont was quoted in The Times.
His party has already clarified: "We are not here to save the Kingdom of Spain, but to serve Catalonia."
"We will not crown Sánchez as prime minister in exchange for nothing," added Miriam Nogueras, President of the Catalan Parliament. Therefore, Sánchez will likely have to make significant compromises if he wants to win another term, but he will almost certainly risk not being able to hold a stable Spanish coalition this way. On the other hand, failing to form a government would trigger a snap election in December.