In recent weeks, Iran has significantly ramped up its smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah, as reported by Ynet. Among the smuggled items are crucial air defense systems, which Hezbollah needs to counter Israeli Air Force strikes in southern Lebanon.
Over the past few months, the terror organization has attempted—and occasionally succeeded—in targeting IDF drones. In response, the Israeli Air Force has struck either the intercepting systems or their parent units, according to the war's established frameworks.
Beyond air defense systems, Tehran is also attempting to supply Hezbollah with Almas missiles—an Iranian-developed anti-tank missile equipped with a camera in its warhead. These long-range, relatively accurate, TV-guided missiles do not require the operator to be in direct line of sight with the target. Developed based on Rafael's Spike missiles, which Hezbollah obtained during the Second Lebanon War, these weapons have been reportedly transported in large trucks and pickup trucks to disguise their true purpose.
Lighting a match in a room full of gasoline
Recently, Arab media have reported several Israeli Air Force strikes on the Iraq-Syria border and the Syria-Lebanon border. It is estimated that these strikes destroyed air defense systems belonging to the Shiite organization, which has lost a significant number of such systems since the start of the fighting. Since the war's outbreak, Hezbollah has managed to intercept five IDF drones and regularly fires at Israeli Air Force aircraft. Notably, on June 1, the terror organization successfully shot down a drone in Lebanon using a surface-to-air missile. Footage from the scene shows a Hermes 900 multi-payload UAV—known in Hebrew as Kochav (Star)—engulfed in flames and crashing.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to threaten Israel with all-out war if it launches an attack on Lebanon. Late Friday night, the Iranian delegation to the UN stated on its X account that if Israel chooses to launch a full-scale attack on its northern border, a "war of annihilation" would ensue. The delegation described Israeli "propaganda" about intending to attack Lebanon as "psychological warfare," but warned that if it happens, "all options, including the full involvement of all resistance fronts (such as militias and Houthis), are on the table."
However, different voices are emerging from Lebanon. Ibrahim al-Amin, editor of Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar, wrote a few days ago that "the resistance does not want a total war; it is working in every way to prevent it, including escalating rhetoric on the political level and issuing operational warnings, and carrying out certain actions to draw the enemy's attention to the heavy costs of a major war."
According to IDF, Lebanon lacks the heavy and precise offensive capabilities of the Israeli military, and certainly does not possess the world's advanced air defense systems—Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow. In fact, a senior IDF general believes Israel erred by not exacting a price from Lebanon as a state from the very beginning, instead focusing only on Hezbollah in a limited manner to avoid escalating into a full-scale campaign.
"Lebanon should have been part of the equation from the start," said the general. "We made a mistake by not involving it in the campaign. Even with low-intensity attacks on vital interests, we would have applied international and internal pressure, which would have acted as a restraining factor in the continuation of the campaign."
It bears mentioning that this position does not enjoy a unanimous consensus within the IDF General Staff: others believe that such a move would have led to a wide-scale war, strengthened Hezbollah as Lebanon's defender, and detracted from the main effort against Hamas in Gaza.