An escalation just waiting to happen

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An escalation usually breaks out after several variables converge at one point in time. That point in time can go on for days and even weeks, with each variable inspiring a different variable.

Riots in Hebron in 2015 (Photo: Reuters)

A Hamas demonstration at the An-Najah University in Nablus in 2015

In the escalation of 2015-2016, which was accompanied by waves of lone-wolf terror attacks, mostly in the form of stabbing attacks and some ramming or shooting attacks, the variables that created the tangent points during those days were:

• A massive campaign launched by Hamas, claiming that Israel was changing the status quo at the Temple Mount;
• Support from the Palestinian Authority and its leadership;
• Young Palestinians' frustration with the leadership in Ramallah and feelings of detachment;
• A lack of a political horizon;
• An unusual, significant growth in incitement on social and electronic media;
• A glorification of terrorists, creating a copycat model, especially among young people with suicidal thoughts or problems at home who were looking for an escape that would turn them from outcasts to heroes.
  

Scene of Sunday’s attack in Jerusalem’s Old City (Photo: Ohad Zwigenberg)

It took a long time for that escalation to slowly die down. It happened, eventually, also thanks to the Israeli defense establishment’s concrete efforts. Security forces monitored and managed to track down, within the ocean of information, the private people who had conveyed signs pointing to a possible intention to carry out a terror attack. The intelligence success exceeded expectations.

Scene of Friday’s car-ramming attack in Samaria (Photo: Yair Sagi)

The soldiers murdered in the car-ramming attack (Photo: Ynet)

At the same time, the Palestinian security apparatus contributed to the effort to end the wave of terror attacks as well by monitoring young Palestinians. The surveillance was very strict: Every morning, the Palestinian schools gave the apparatus a list of students who hadn’t showed up that day, and the apparatus carried out a quick investigation to ensure that their absence had nothing to do with a possible attempt to carry out a terror attack.

Rabbi Raziel Shevah, who was murdered in a West Bank shooting attack, with his wife Yael

Now, after quite a long period of relative calm, the ground is sizzling with tension again. Within just two days, attacks were carried out by two lone-wolf terrorists: On Sunday evening, in Jerusalem’s Old City, a Palestinian terrorist from the village of Aqraba near Nablus stabbed and seriously wounded Adiel Coleman, who later succumbed to his wounds; on Friday, a terrorist from the village of Barta'a murdered Lieutenant Ziv Daus and Sergeant Netanel Kahalani in a car-ramming attack and wounded two other soldiers. Several shooting incidents have also been carried out in the past week in the Ramallah area without causing any injuries.

Rabbi Itamar Ben Gal, who was murdered in a stabbing attack in Ariel, with his wife Miriam

Israeli citizens have been attacked on several occasions after accidentally entering PA territories, and American diplomats and businesspeople have been attacked while attending conferences in Palestinian cities.

Terrorist Ahmed Jarrar. Waves of admiration on the Palestinian street

The shooting attack carried out by a Hamas cell from Jenin, which left Rabbi Raziel Shevah dead, was met with waves of admiration on the Palestinian street for terrorist Ahmed Jarrar. Terrorist Abed al-Karim Adel Assi, who murdered Rabbi Itamar Ben Gal and managed to hide in Nablus for more than a month, was finally captured early Sunday.

Security forces arrest Rabbi Ben Gal’s murderer, Abed al-Karim Adel Assi, in Nablus (Photo: IDF Spokesman's Office)

The current tensions could be joined by several variables, which are slowly converging and will keep converging in the coming days and weeks:

• US President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the State of Israel’s capital;
• The Palestinian leadership’s unusual public attack on the American administration;
• The Palestinians' feeling of isolation;
• The lack of support from Arab states;
• The upcoming Palestinian days of commemoration: Land Day, Nakba Day and Naksa Day;
• The “great return march” in the Gaza Strip, which is being planned in several waves from next week to Nakba Day;
• Israel’s 70th Independence Day celebrations;
• The US embassy relocation ceremony in Jerusalem, just one day before Nakba Day;
• Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ deteriorating health and old age, which are expected to lead to succession battles immediately after his departure.
  

Palestinian rage after Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (Photo: EPA)

These variables have begun converging, and it’s too early to tell where each and all of them are going to take us. We are facing a particularly explosive series of events in a relatively short timeframe which might ignite the fuse, and that’s exactly what Hamas is hoping for.

It’s important to remember, however, that the equation is being curbed by some factors, starting from the defense establishment’s smart distinction between the Palestinian population and the terrorists and instigating elements to the accurate activity of the Palestinian security apparatuses, which is constantly taking place under the radar—now more than ever—in light of the public Palestinian criticism against the security coordination. Will this activity suffice this time?