Ofer Dekel, Israel's special envoy to the ongoing negotiations for the release of Gilad Shalit, announced his resignation on Tuesday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to appoint a replacement. The experts, as usual, are at odds over the possible repercussions.
"Any changes to the negotiator's position will delay the efforts," says Professor Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov,
head of the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies and the Swiss Center for Conflict Research, Management and Resolution.
"It's pretty depressing, but the story here is not only Dekel's departure, it's the ascension of the entire Netanyahu government to power. Experience shows that since the beginning of the negotiations with the Palestinians, in 1993, any change in leadership has resulted in having to start from the beginning. It's sad that instead of having accumulating experience and the transfer of knowledge, people keep changing.
"According to the American system, when the president changes – the country's ambassadors resign. But this is not the case with Ofer Dekel, who was appointed in a professional capacity and not as anyone's personal appointee. He came as a former Mossad guy, as an expert, and so he could have continued to serve. He knew the people involved, and the experience gives him an edge over the others. There is no question that the Shalit family is paying the price."
However, Bar-Siman-Tov added, the importance of the special envoy should not be exaggerated. "Even if Dekel had stayed on, the negotiations would have been held up because the new government has a different position to that of its predecessor," he says.
'A new coach, with new tactics'
Rami Igra, former head of the Mossad's captive and MIA department, sees the change as a positive move. "Since we're at a dead end right now, it was a good thing on the government's part to shuffle the cards and start afresh, with a new policy, a new approach, and new people," he said.
"Of course this doesn't mean anything about the service Ofer Dekel has done for the State of Israel. It just means that the old way, which centered on (freeing Shalit) at any cost, brought us nowhere and that now it's time to consider a different way. It's like with a soccer team that doesn't make it to the top league – the owner would be right to replace the old coach, and start with a different tactic."
Asked who he thought should fill Dekel's shoes, Igra said: "Let's just say that I wouldn't recommend it to my friends since Netanyahu is not going to be willing to give up more than (former Prime Minister Ehud)
Olmert. Whoever takes the job is about to be very unpopular. From now on he'll have to say 'no' a lot to the other side, and he'll be bombarded with criticism from the Israeli public.
"When they came to me at the time and asked me why I didn't volunteer for the position, I told the Shalit family that I would be willing only if they are prepared to change their stance and understand that the way forward is through saying 'no.' If it were my son I would say 'no' – and not because I'm a heroic father, but because that would be the only way to bring him home."