Since the signing of the Abraham Accords, it has been assumed in Israel that relations with the Arab world can be advanced while bypassing the Palestinian issue. Based on this, it became widely believed that the accomplishments of the summer of 2020 could be repeated, and the "big prize" could be achieved – normalization with Saudi Arabia.
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However, over time, piercing question marks have emerged, primarily regarding whether it is possible to achieve that same historic breakthrough in a government under which conflicts with the Palestinians have reached their peak, while having a negative effect on our relations with the Arab world.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
(Photo: Reuters)
For years, Israel has lacked a coherent strategy regarding the Palestinian issue, and in the current government two conflicting perceptions on the issue coexist. On the one hand, there is a general statement from the Likud party, which is essentially not different from the stance of some centrist parties, that Israel is willing to engage in a diplomatic arrangement based on its terms once the conditions are ripe, while, in the meantime, settlement expansion in the West Bank can continue. On the other hand, there is an orderly and consolidated alternative led by religious Zionist party leaders and far-right Otzma Yehudit advocates who promote an accelerated annexation of the West Bank, erasing the Green Line borders, and creating a reality of one state.
The gradual change in the West Bank reality is implemented in a variety of ways, starting from decisions to expedite construction in the settlements, continuing with public desire for the weakening of the Palestinian Authority, and culminating in the tolerance or even support of violations of the law, such as recent riots against Palestinians ("civilian counter-actions" as phrased by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich) and the construction of illegal outposts ("run to the hills, we are backing you" as declared by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir). These factors undermine the government's cohesion and the authority of the government itself.
As a result, Israel finds itself in severe internal tension, as expressed in the letter released by security establishment leaders following recent riots, and externally, as reflected in Morocco's announcement to postpone the Negev Forum meeting scheduled for July, emphasizing that it stems, among other things, from the decision to expand construction in settlements.
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National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich
(Photo: EPA, AFP)
The message to decision makers is clear: As the reality in the West Bank continues to change and the conflict intensifies, the chances of a breakthrough with the Arab world diminishes. The current approach, which includes a limited normalization of relations with some Arab countries, a weakened relationship with the Palestinians and a growing international criticism against Israel, particularly from the United States, makes it difficult to deal with an increasingly powerful Iran approaching nuclear capabilities.
Practically speaking, the first step is to examine how to stabilize (a less optimistic term than "strengthen") the Palestinian Authority, which, despite its flaws, prevents Israel from assuming deep responsibility in the West Bank. This can be achieved by limiting economic sanctions and increasing civilian assistance. Second, efforts must be focused on countering Hamas, which fuels a significant portion of the conflict and obstructs a coherent strategy aimed at gaining control in the West Bank and subsequently taking over the region. And third, settlement planning should be carried out judiciously, focusing on blocs and avoiding widespread dispersion that would deepen the integration between the two entities.
Simultaneously, it is essential for the Israeli public to wake up from its lack of interest and awareness regarding the Palestinian situation. The public needs to understand the significance of the Palestinian Authority's disintegration, the expansion of civilian responsibility in the West Bank, and the escalation of confrontations. It should imagine what daily life would look like in a single state without physical separation, where a large Arab minority and an uncertain Jewish majority coexist.
The public discourse should not only revolve around internal issues such as the future of the judicial system and the relationship between religion and state but also engage with the Palestinian question, which is equally existential and will dramatically impact Israel's destiny and its Zionism. The public should demand that its leadership hold such a discussion or, at the very least, explain the long-term strategy on this matter. Ignoring it will only increase the intensity of its eruption, turning it into a ticking time bomb.
Dr. Michael Milstein is a senior researcher in the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University