Hamas has begun a dramatic and highly secretive election to choose a new political bureau chief, replacing the five-member council that has led the terrorist organization since Yahya Sinwar was killed in October 2024.
Official Hamas sources confirmed to the Saudi-owned Asharq channel that members of the organization’s General Shura Council began a complex secret ballot on Saturday. The process is expected to conclude within a week, or within two weeks at the latest.
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Who will win? Khaled Mashaal or Khalil al-Hayya
(Photo: AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi, Osama Faisal, AP, Khalil Hamra/AP)
The election is being conducted under tight security through a layered and complicated voting system, primarily because of Hamas’ fear of Israeli intelligence and the series of targeted killings that has severely damaged its senior leadership over the past two years.
Those killings include the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024, Sinwar’s death and the elimination of political bureau members and military commanders at various levels.
The race has narrowed to two leading candidates who represent different approaches within the organization.
Khalil al-Hayya is Hamas’ de facto leader in the Gaza Strip, heads its negotiating delegation and was a close associate of Sinwar. He is also regarded as a strong ally of Iran and its regional axis.
His rival, Khaled Mashaal, leads Hamas abroad and previously served as head of its political bureau. Mashaal represents a more independent position toward Tehran and maintains stronger ties with Qatar and Turkey.
Hamas sources said members of the Shura Council in Gaza had already voted “almost unanimously” for al-Hayya. The final result, however, will be determined only after ballots from council members in the West Bank and abroad are counted.
Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh
(Photo: AP)
In an unprecedented development, Asharq reported that several council members imprisoned in Israel are also participating in the election, with their votes being transmitted through secret channels.
Gaza leadership or a shift abroad
If al-Hayya is elected, Hamas’ center of power is expected to remain inside the Gaza Strip.
Under that scenario, Ali al-Amoudi is expected to become head of Hamas’ political bureau in Gaza, while Zaher Jabarin would continue overseeing the West Bank portfolio.
Senior Hamas figures in the West Bank and abroad, however, are pushing for Mashaal’s election in an effort to move the organization’s administrative and political center outside Gaza, particularly after the severe erosion of Hamas’ governing infrastructure in the enclave.
Hamas’ military leadership in both Gaza and the West Bank is believed to favor al-Hayya.
The elections have been frozen and repeatedly delayed since the last Ramadan, mainly because of regional tensions and the upheaval within the organization.
One reason for the latest delay was the need for Hamas’ military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, to select a new representative to the 18-member political bureau.
That need arose after Israel killed Izz al-Din al-Haddad in May. Al-Haddad was a senior military commander and a close political ally of al-Hayya within Hamas institutions.
Officials in Gaza assessed that al-Haddad’s death could slightly weaken al-Hayya’s standing within the military wing and improve Mashaal’s chances.
Temporary leadership to be dissolved
Under Hamas’ internal regulations, the organization holds elections every four years.
After Sinwar was killed in October 2024, operational conditions prevented an election from taking place. Hamas therefore established a five-member temporary leadership council.
Members of the temporary council, from left: Mohammed Darwish, Khalil al-Hayya, Zaher Jabarin, Khaled Mashaal and Nizar Awadallah
(Photo: Osama Faisal, Khalil Hamra, AP / Reuters / Iran's Presidential website/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
The council was headed by Mohammed Darwish, also known as Abu Omar Hassan, chairman of the General Shura Council. It also included the leaders of Hamas’ three regional branches, Gaza, the West Bank and abroad, as well as the political bureau secretary, whose identity has remained completely secret for security reasons.
Once a permanent political bureau chief is chosen, Hamas is expected to return to its traditional leadership structure and immediately dissolve the temporary five-member council.
A senior Hamas official told the Saudi channel that the organization had decided to accelerate the election because it faced critical decisions requiring a single leader capable of approving strategic moves quickly and efficiently.
Decisions on Israel, Gaza and Iran
The new leader will confront a series of unprecedented challenges, including the future of negotiations with Israel.
Hamas will need to establish new red lines for a prisoner deal and ceasefire and reorganize its negotiating team.
Will they assume civilian control of Gaza? The technocratic government
The future of Hamas rule in Gaza will also be a top priority, including decisions on transferring civilian administration of the enclave to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.
The new leadership will also have to decide where Hamas’ headquarters and political bureau will be based, particularly after its offices in Doha became a target and the organization was forced to consider alternatives.
Another central challenge will be managing Hamas’ relationship with Iran, particularly against the backdrop of what the organization describes as the “American war against Iran” and its effect on Hamas’ financing and weapons supply.
Hamas officials said that once the required majority is secured in the 69-member General Shura Council, the organization will issue an official announcement naming the leader who will guide it through one of the most difficult periods in its history.