The Middle East is once again approaching boiling point as the already tense holiday period begins, with the confrontation between the United States and Iran escalating again and putting Israel’s security establishment on maximum alert.
The Military Intelligence Directorate and the Air Force have completed preparations for various scenarios, both in defensive systems and in counterattack plans, in case of further exchanges of blows between the United States and Iran that could deteriorate into a full-scale war and fire on Israel.
Iranian missile launches toward Jordan
Earlier Wednesday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said in an interview at the “Decision Time: Democracy and Society” conference hosted by ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth in cooperation with the Israel Democracy Institute that “the more U.S. pressure on Iran increases, and the greater the friction and economic strangulation of Iran, the greater the likelihood that they will attack. We are prepared for that defensively.”
“They like to attack on Jewish holidays because they hate Jews, look at many things that happened in the past,” he said. “But we are prepared in defense and offense, in coordination with the U.S. in this regard.”
Although security officials assess that neither side is currently heading toward a direct confrontation, the IDF is taking no chances. In recent months, an updated target bank for strikes in Iran has been prepared.
At the same time, the IDF is carrying out a fundamental improvement of its operational methods based on lessons from Operation Roaring Lion. The intention is to enter the next confrontation in optimal condition and deliver a severe and painful blow in a short period of time that would lead the Iranians toward an agreement more favorable to Israel and the United States.
Among other things, preparations are also being made for a scenario in which the Iranian public takes to the streets, as U.S. President Donald Trump hopes.
At the same time, the heavy economic pressure Washington is applying creates a strategic paradox for Israel. The more successful the sanctions are, the more they could push the Iranians toward desperate attacks on Israel after refraining from doing so in recent months, which would serve as a key indication of the effectiveness of the economic pressure.
All this is taking place against the backdrop of an escalation trend in the various arenas, from aggressive activity in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to increased pressure in Lebanon.
Two Hezbollah explosive drones were launched overnight toward IDF forces on the Ali al-Taher ridge. One drone was intercepted and the other exploded without causing casualties.
The incidents on the ridge in southern Lebanon are occurring alongside tense talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the U.S. ambassadors to Israel and Lebanon over a pilot framework in southern Lebanon that is not progressing as expected.
The combination of the holiday period, packed with mass events that will increase because of the approaching elections, together with the nearing third anniversary of the war, is creating a particularly volatile period in which the IDF is on alert across all fronts.
The security establishment is aware of this and is conducting drills and carrying out preparations for the possibility of escalation in one arena or all of them.