The enigma of Trump: A presidency of unpredictability

Opinion: According to prevailing local narrative, Trump is a peace-seeking statesman who despises war, excels in 'give-and-take' deals, and is fully committed to securing his place in history—at the very least—as the architect of Israel-Saudi normalization 

Around the world, people speak of the "Trump enigma," viewing him as an unpredictable, capricious president full of contradictions—one who issues threats from the Oval Office based on his mood or the last whisper in his ear. But in Israel, things are different. Here, Trump’s commentators seem convinced they understand exactly who he is and what he intends to do.
According to the prevailing Israeli narrative, Trump is a statesman who seeks peace, despises war, excels in "give-and-take" deals, and is determined to cement his legacy by brokering normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. After all, it is common knowledge that nothing would please Trump more than receiving the Nobel Peace Prize at a ceremony at Oslo’s City Hall. Does Trump even know where Norway is? Doubtful.
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דונלד טראמפ
דונלד טראמפ
U.S. President Donald Trump
(צילום: AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
This idealized Israeli view of Trump fuels hopes that he will rein in Netanyahu, tame far-right ministers like Bezalel Smotrich, and impose diplomatic solutions aligned with the vision of certain local politicians.
I beg to differ.
Let’s start with the facts: I have watched countless Trump speeches, both during his presidential campaign and after his victory. Buried within the tens of thousands of words he has spoken, I found only one passing remark in which he casually described himself as a peacemaker rather than a warmonger—five vague words in a sea of extreme rhetoric. Not exactly a sturdy pillar to lean on.

A radical vision for Gaza

When Trump took office, not a single commentator—American or Israeli—predicted that his solution for Gaza would involve the "voluntary" relocation of 1.5 million residents to countries near and far. According to the plan, they would be dispersed across Jordan (where Palestinians already constitute a majority), Albania (a small, secular nation only recently emerging from a 25-year economic crisis), and even Indonesia, which—if we are to believe the proposal—could resettle Gazans on one of its 17,000 islands. Simple, right?
But it wasn't just this unprecedented American diplomatic proposal that caught observers off guard. They were equally stunned when Trump invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House this week—making him the first foreign leader to visit. Many had expected Trump to hold a grudge after his outspoken anger over Netanyahu's "rush" to congratulate the former president for his 2020 win.
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And as for Saudi Arabia? Trump needs Riyadh not for an Israeli-Saudi peace deal but primarily to fulfill his promise of lowering oil prices. Normalization with Israel? That’s a much more distant goal.

A gambler, not a master negotiator

Contrary to the glowing image of Trump as a business genius, his actual record is far less impressive. Within the American business community, he is known as a reckless investor—a high-stakes gambler who risked (other people’s) money on dubious ventures and narrowly escaped a string of bankruptcies. Now, he is also dodging legal troubles, thanks to the automatic immunity granted to U.S. presidents.
Consider his last term: In January 2020, Trump unveiled his Israeli-Palestinian peace plan, calling for the establishment of "New Palestine," which would span 70% of the West Bank and include large areas of Israel’s western Negev, annexed to Gaza. The plan collapsed with Joe Biden’s election, having been vehemently rejected by the Palestinian Authority and met with characteristic ambiguity from Netanyahu’s government.
סבר פלוצקרSever PlockerPhoto: Yair Sagi
Will Trump, against all current expectations, resurrect the core elements of his "deal of the century" in a second term? Who knows. What goes on in Trump’s mind is anyone’s guess. His declarations and decisions resemble a game of chance.
Just this past weekend, Trump announced steep tariffs—up to 25%—on imports from America’s friendly neighbors, Mexico and Canada. On Monday he announced he was delaying the Mexican tarrifs. Yet when it comes to China, his supposed geopolitical adversary, he opted for a far milder 10% tariff instead of the 100% he once threatened to impose. Why? No real explanation. Trump’s decision-making process typically unfolds in reverse: He acts first and rationalizes later—if at all.
A second Trump term will be a presidency of roulette. Best to get used to it.
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