Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in an October 25 runoff after conservative Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished the first round ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though neither secured the majority needed for an outright victory.
With about 97% of the vote counted, the 45-year-old Bolsonaro had 47.45%, compared with 44.66% for Lula, 80. Polls had generally predicted a much closer contest with Lula slightly ahead, though neither candidate had been expected to cross the 50% threshold.
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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flávio Bolsonaro
(Photo: Evaristo SA and Mauro PIMENTEL / AFP)
President Lula at a mass rally in São Paulo on the eve of the vote
(Photo: REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli)
Flávio Bolsonaro outside the polling station where he voted in Rio de Janeiro
(Photo: AP Photo/Lucas Landau)
Bolsonaro had said before the vote that he was counting on "protest votes" from Brazilians motivated more by opposition to Lula than support for him. "I am very happy with the results. Brazil wants change," he said after the scale of his first-round showing became clear.
Lula acknowledged the surprise. "These were unexpected results," he said. "I was sure I was going to win the election in the first round." He added that "a new campaign begins tomorrow," describing Bolsonaro as representing "uncertainty for the country."
Flávio Bolsonaro has served in the Senate since 2019 and is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a close supporter of Israel who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022. The elder Bolsonaro was later convicted over a plot to overturn his election defeat to Lula and sentenced to 27 years in prison. Because of health issues, he is currently serving his sentence under house arrest. His son has promised to pardon him if elected.
Lula previously served as president from 2003 to 2011. He was later convicted on corruption charges and imprisoned, but the convictions were annulled, allowing him to return to politics and narrowly defeat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 by just 1.8 percentage points. Although Lula initially said that term would be his last, he is now seeking a fourth term as president.
The campaign has focused heavily on Brazil’s struggling economy, the cost of living, organized crime and relations with US President Donald Trump. Flávio Bolsonaro has promised a tougher campaign against powerful criminal groups and has proposed designating some of them as terrorist organizations, a move Lula opposes. He has also pledged to repair relations with Washington after repeated clashes between Lula and Trump.
Relations with Israel have also emerged as a clear dividing line. Like his father, Flávio Bolsonaro is an outspoken supporter of Israel and has repeatedly appeared at rallies alongside Israeli flags. During a visit to Israel earlier this year, his fourth, he pledged to move Brazil’s embassy to Jerusalem if elected.
At a rally in Santa Bárbara d’Oeste on the eve of the election
(Photo: REUTERS/Alexandre Meneghini)
Flávio Bolsonaro waves an Israeli flag at a rally last July
(Photo: Miguel SCHINCARIOL / AFP)
"Brazil must stand with Israel, with the Jewish people and with democracies fighting terrorism," Bolsonaro said during the visit, accusing Lula of antisemitism. He also promised that Brazil’s next president "will not be persona non grata in Israel."
Lula, by contrast, has become one of Israel’s most outspoken international critics since the Gaza war began. Although he condemned Hamas after the October 7 massacre, he later accused Israel of genocide and compared its actions in Gaza to those of Hitler. Brazil recalled its ambassador from Israel in 2024, and Lula’s government declined to approve a new Israeli ambassador in Brasília the following year.
The result sets up three more weeks of campaigning in an intensely polarized race. Bolsonaro will seek to consolidate voters who backed other candidates in the first round, while Lula will try to reverse an outcome he acknowledged he did not expect and hold on to the coalition that returned him to power four years ago.