Leveraging victory: Preparing for the war after Gaza

Opinion: On every front where it fought, the IDF demonstrated overwhelming superiority over its enemies and achieved victories few had predicted; yet, Israel still faces the risk of defeat—not on the battlefield, but within its own society

Michael Oren|
Fifty years from now, at West Point and other military academies around the world, cadets will be studying Israel’s victory in the 2023-2025 Middle East war. Never before in history, they will learn, has any army faced the challenge of Gaza, an intensely built-up area defended by 30,000 terrorists hiding behind two and a half million civilians with extremely limited ability to flee the combat zone, and fighting not only above ground but in some 400 kilometers of tunnels.
By comparison, in Faluja and Mosul, the two bloodiest battles fought in Iraq, the U.S. Army faced at most 5,000 insurgents in cities largely empty of civilians and virtually free of tunnels. The IDF not only prevailed in Gaza but did so with a civilian-to-combatant fatality ratio of one to one. The ratio for the U.S. military was, at its lowest, nine civilians killed for every terrorist.
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יחידת יהל״ם ואוגדה 99 השמידו אתר תת-קרקעי לייצור אמצעי לחימה במרכז רצועת עזה
יחידת יהל״ם ואוגדה 99 השמידו אתר תת-קרקעי לייצור אמצעי לחימה במרכז רצועת עזה
IDF troops operating in Gaza
(Photo: IDF)
The cadets will also study how, in addition to the unprecedented challenges of Gaza, the IDF also found Hezbollah, one of the most formidable armies in the Middle East. Israeli troops encountered rising terror in Judea and Samaria, rocket and drone attacks from Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and massive ballistic missile strikes from Iran itself. On all these fronts, the IDF proved vastly superior to its enemies and, to an extent that almost no one predicted, prevailed.
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Israel’s victories have been transformative. In addition to dealing an immense blow to jihadi terrorism, the war has resulted in the elimination of Syria as a unified state threatening to its neighbors and reversed the spread of Iranian influence throughout the region. Dangerously weakened, the regime in Tehran is liable to collapse. The New Middle East once envisioned by President Shimon Peres might well come into being but not as Peres predicted, through peace, but through the successful conduct of war.
Michael OrenMichael OrenPhoto: Alex Kolomoisky
And yet, Israel still stands to lose this war. Disaster can still befall us but not only on the battlefield, but rather within Israeli society. Failure to maintain the internal unity that facilitated that victory could jeopardize all our military achievements. Failure to seriously address the Haredi military service issue, for example, or to avoid renewed divisions over the judicial reform, will once again weaken Israeli society and greatly diminish our ability to take advantage of our accomplishments.
Above all, failure to exhaust all possible means of securing the release our the hostages will leave a permanent schism in our society. Maintaining our resilience, no less than defeating Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, must be an Israeli strategic goal.
Fifty years from now, military cadets the world over will study the truly extraordinary achievements of the IDF. Now it is up to us to ensure that they will also study how Israeli society, by remaining united, was able to transform those victories into permanent security and peace.
  • Michael Oren is a former Israeli ambassador to the United States
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