Last weekend, a man called Lindner Center of Hope, a mental health treatment facility in Mason, Ohio. Claiming to be a relative of James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, he asked whether Talarico had been discharged. Shortly afterward, on Sunday, two influencers from the MAGA movement, which supports President Donald Trump, published what they claimed was a recording of the conversation, suggesting that Talarico had indeed been hospitalized at the psychiatric facility and subsequently released.
Given that Talarico had been absent from public appearances for nine days because of what his campaign described as a severe case of the flu, this appeared to be the kind of revelation that could destroy the campaign of the first Democrat in decades with a realistic chance of winning in the vast conservative stronghold.
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Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton (right) and his Democratic rival James Talarico, who leads narrowly in the polls
(Photo: Kevin Dietsch / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP, AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
But the Lindner Center of Hope quickly issued an official statement confirming that Talarico had never been treated there. The New York Times reviewed time-stamped images from security cameras at his home showing that he was there between October 1 and October 8. Talarico himself declared, "I've never even been to Ohio."
Finally, the complete recording of the phone call revealed that the version circulated by the two influencers, Nick Sortor and Rhein Amacher, had been selectively edited. The full conversation showed that the caller, who lacked the required patient access code, supplied a made-up code, while the staff member repeatedly said she could find no record of anyone named James Talarico. The recording provided no evidence that he had ever been admitted to the facility.
By now, of course, none of that seems to matter. Elon Musk has amplified the conspiracy theory, as has Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff and one of Trump's most influential advisers. The vast MAGA media machine is demanding that Talarico produce geographical proof that he was not in Ohio during his absence.
This entire manufactured drama is unfolding because Talarico, 37, is leading Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the polls and has a genuine chance of winning one of the key races in the November 3 midterm elections. Polling suggests that Democrats could capture not only the House of Representatives but also the Senate, severely complicating Trump's final two years in office.
Midterm elections have historically been viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. His party generally suffers losses and sees its congressional strength diminished. But with polls showing Trump's popularity at a low point, and Republican and independent voters increasingly frustrated by the cost of living and price increases following the war with Iran, Democrats now hope to win even in traditionally conservative strongholds.
Texas is the most striking example. America's second-most populous state, with approximately 32 million residents, has been considered reliably Republican for decades. Trump defeated Kamala Harris there by 14 percentage points in 2024. The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was in 1988, a year before Talarico was even born.
Democrats have suffered repeated disappointments in Texas. In 2018, they placed enormous hopes in Beto O'Rourke, whose campaign against Republican Senator Ted Cruz generated tremendous enthusiasm. O'Rourke ultimately lost, although by just 2.6 percentage points, a historically narrow margin in Texas.
Unlike Talarico, however, O'Rourke had not established a sustained polling lead before the election. That is why Democrats are more optimistic this time, while Republicans are increasingly alarmed, as reflected in the extraordinary sums they are pouring into efforts to rescue Paxton.
Polls suggest Democrats could win control of Congress, while even Trump is acknowledging the possibility of an upset in Texas
(Photot: shutterstock, Tasos Katopodis / Getty Images, מתוך ויקיפדיה, AP)
The intensity of the contest is reflected in its cost. It has become one of the most expensive nonpresidential races in American history, with spending surpassing half a billion dollars. Republican groups alone have committed enormous sums to defending the Senate seat being vacated by veteran Republican John Cornyn, with approximately $232 million earmarked for the final stretch between early September and Election Day.
Cornyn lost the Republican primary to Paxton after Trump backed the challenger, regarding the longtime senator as insufficiently loyal. Polling had suggested Cornyn would have been a much stronger candidate against Talarico, and analysts believe the race would not have been nearly as competitive had the incumbent won the Republican nomination. Paxton, by contrast, carries considerable political baggage, including corruption allegations and an impeachment attempt led by fellow Republicans in Texas.
Trump and conservative billionaires are now mobilizing behind Paxton with an aggressive campaign designed to portray Talarico as far too liberal for Texas. They have seized on statements from his past that he has since sought to clarify or distance himself from, including his assertion that God is nonbinary.
Trump has given him the mocking nickname "TalaFREAKO," while the campaign has been accompanied by false allegations, including the debunked psychiatric hospitalization claim and Trump's repeated assertion that Talarico is a vegan, despite the Democrat explicitly saying he eats meat.
The attacks may nevertheless be succeeding in bringing moderate and undecided Republican voters back into the party's camp. Recent polls indicate that Talarico's lead has narrowed. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in late September put him six points ahead, but a Marist poll conducted October 8-11 found his advantage had shrunk to just two points, within the margin of error.
‘We have lost the South for a generation’
It is difficult to remember, or even believe, today, but Texas was once a Democratic stronghold. For nearly a century after the American Civil War, Texas was a cornerstone of the Democratic-dominated South. Republicans, the party of Abraham Lincoln, were deeply unpopular across the former Confederate states.
Then came Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal, which helped pull the United States out of the Great Depression, won enormous popularity in impoverished, agricultural Texas and further strengthened the Democrats. Democratic politicians from Texas, including Roosevelt's vice president John Nance Garner and later President Lyndon B. Johnson, emerged from that political system.
The transformation began as conservative white Texans grew increasingly resentful of the Democrats' movement to the left on civil rights for Black Americans and the expansion of the economic safety net. The turning point came after President Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act in 1964.
According to a widely repeated account associated with his close aide Bill Moyers, Johnson feared that the legislation would cost Democrats the South for a generation. The remark, commonly rendered as "We have lost the South for a generation," became almost mythical in explanations of the seismic political shift that turned Texas and other Southern states from Democratic territory into firmly Republican strongholds, although historians have questioned whether Johnson actually used those precise words.
Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson, a Texas native who rose to power when the state was still reliably Democratic. He is widely associated with the disputed remark, ‘We have lost the South for a generation’
(Photo: GettyImages)
In 1961, John Tower became the first Republican senator from Texas since the 19th century. Bill Clements became the state's first Republican governor in more than a century in 1978. During the 1980s and 1990s, the suburbs of Dallas, Houston and Austin experienced enormous population growth. Many of these new residents were affluent white, religious, middle-class business owners and people employed in the oil industry. Attracted by the Republicans' low-tax policies, they shifted their political allegiance.
Democrats managed to hold on for a while, thanks in part to popular figures such as charismatic Governor Ann Richards. But in 1994, Richards lost the governorship to George W. Bush, and four years later Republicans had secured control of every statewide executive office, including governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, as well as the Texas Supreme Court.
No Democrat has won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, and the state has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988. Over the past decade, however, the growth of Texas's Hispanic population, whose voters historically leaned Democratic, revived hopes of another political transformation. Those hopes have not materialized.
Now, though, polls suggest Hispanic voters are abandoning Trump amid frustration over the cost of living and his administration's mass deportation campaign against undocumented immigrants. Democrats are dreaming of Texas once again.
Christianity takes center stage: ‘Economic justice appears 3,000 times in Scripture’
Until a year ago, anyone who was not a political obsessive had probably never heard of Talarico. Born in Austin, he is an eighth-generation Texan. His grandfather was a popular pastor in South Texas, and his grandson grew up to become a devout Christian, a Harvard-educated former teacher who continues to study Christian theology at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary alongside his political career.
Since November 2018, Talarico has served in the Texas House of Representatives, representing districts in the Austin area, the state capital and a Democratic island in an overwhelmingly Republican state.
The first time Talarico's name reached an audience well beyond Texas politics was during an interview former President Barack Obama gave a year ago on comedian Marc Maron's podcast. Maron expressed his frustration with Democratic candidates who, he felt, were unable to connect authentically with voters, relying instead on talking points prepared by political consultants. Obama acknowledged the problem but pointed to a young Texas politician who stood out. He mentioned Talarico, describing him as "terrific" and a "really talented young man."
Following in his grandfather's footsteps: James Talarico at a campaign event in San Marcos, Texas
(Photo: REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez/File Photo)
Since then, Talarico has become a rising star in the Democratic Party. He comfortably defeated his much better-known rival in the Democratic primary, outspoken progressive Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, while building a grassroots campaign that made highly effective use of social media.
Talarico has carved out an unusual political identity within the party: a progressive candidate who is also a devout Christian and places Christianity at the center of his political work. His message emphasizes social justice, loving one's neighbor, caring for the poor and immigrants, defending the separation of church and state, and opposing Christian nationalism.
"Economic justice is mentioned 3,000 times in our Scriptures," Talarico has said, arguing that concern for the poor and oppressed is central to the biblical tradition but largely absent from modern Christian nationalism and the religious right. In deeply religious Texas, that message is finding an audience.
Like many Democratic candidates, Talarico has pledged not to accept money from corporate political action committees. Nevertheless, large sums have flowed into his campaign, both through individual contributions and from billionaires supporting outside groups. He has explained that he cannot afford to disarm unilaterally while Republicans benefit from hundreds of millions of dollars in billionaire-funded spending.
He has also managed to capitalize on attempts by the Trump administration and federal regulators to restrict his access to late-night television programs, whose networks depend on federal broadcasting licenses. Two planned television interviews, with Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel, were kept off their respective CBS and ABC broadcasts amid legal concerns and pressure from the Federal Communications Commission. Both were instead made available online, where they attracted tens of millions of views and helped Talarico raise millions of dollars.
Veteran Republican Senator John Cornyn, who lost his primary after Trump endorsed challenger Ken Paxton
(Photo: AP Photo/Annie Rice)
Since Cornyn's defeat in the Republican primary, Talarico has sought to court moderate conservative voters who are disappointed by Paxton's nomination and troubled by the corruption allegations surrounding him. He has repeatedly made clear that such voters are welcome in his campaign.
According to the New York Times poll from late September, 60% of voters identifying as independents supported him, along with 7% of self-identified Republicans. One of them, Pete Nodecker, an 81-year-old retired restaurant industry supplier who voted for Trump twice, told CNN that he intended to vote for a Democrat for the first time. "I'm rather disillusioned with the Republican Party," he said. "The Republican Party has been hijacked. They're not the Republican Party that I was a member of for all my life."
Netanyahu, AIPAC and ‘the moral test of our time’
Although Talarico is considered a progressive, with a campaign focused on fighting the cost of living, raising taxes on the wealthy, combating corruption and expanding access to health insurance, he has adopted more moderate positions than some of his ideological allies, including on Israel. He emphasizes his support for Israel's right to exist and defend itself, but has sharply criticized the war in Gaza.
He has said that, if elected to the Senate, he would vote to halt sales of offensive weapons to Israel and oppose the use of American taxpayer money to finance actions that harm civilians. At the same time, in communications with Texas's Jewish community, he has made clear that he supports continued funding for defensive systems such as Iron Dome.
Former President Barack Obama was among the first prominent Democrats to recognize Talarico's potential, calling him a talented young politician
Talarico has described the war in Gaza as "the moral test of our time," accused Netanyahu's government of war crimes and collective punishment, and strongly criticized what he describes as the use of starvation and restrictions on humanitarian assistance. Nevertheless, he has repeatedly declined to characterize Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide, saying the legal question is being considered by the International Court of Justice.
He has also said Hamas is a terrorist organization that must be removed from power. During a CNN town hall on Wednesday, he was questioned by a Jewish voter about rising antisemitism in the United States. Talarico responded that he had deep love and respect for the Jewish people and Jewish scripture, explaining that he had studied the Hebrew Bible under a local rabbi rather than from a Christian perspective.
He named Rabbi Neil Blumofe of Congregation Agudas Achim in Austin, crediting him with helping shape his understanding of Judaism. Talarico also said he had stood alongside Jewish leaders in Central Texas in confronting antisemitism and had consistently opposed hatred in all its forms, believing that Texans should feel welcome regardless of their religious beliefs.
When the woman questioning him, Rabbi Holly Levin Cohn of Congregation Beth El Binah in Dallas, asked about the relationship between criticism of Israel and antisemitism, Talarico stressed that his criticism was directed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, not the Israeli people. Speaking as a former teacher, he said that watching the devastation in Gaza, particularly the suffering of children, "makes me sick to my stomach."
He also acknowledged that the October 7 massacre was the deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust. Talarico reiterated his belief that Israel, like any other country, has the right to defend its citizens, but argued that this right did not give Netanyahu permission to wage war against civilians, impose collective punishment or restrict humanitarian aid. That, he explained, was the conduct he had spoken out against.
Talarico, who supports a two-state solution and calls for a halt to Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank, has taken an aggressive stance toward the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC. He has accused the organization of discouraging legitimate criticism of Netanyahu by threatening political candidates with massive spending against them, a practice he argues damages the prospects for reconciliation and peace in the Middle East.
At the same time, he has drawn clear lines against antisemitic rhetoric, more forcefully than some of his progressive colleagues. Among other things, he refused to campaign alongside Maureen Galindo, an extremist Democratic candidate seeking a Texas seat in the U.S. House of Representatives who pledged to turn an immigration detention facility into a prison for American Zionists if elected. Talarico condemned her statements as antisemitic, and Galindo ultimately lost her primary runoff. In any case, Jewish voters account for less than 1% of Texas's population, making their direct electoral influence relatively limited.
Another thing Talarico and a new generation of Democratic candidates are doing is taking their message directly to conservative media audiences. Talarico has appeared repeatedly on Fox News and sat down for a two-and-a-half-hour interview with Joe Rogan, the enormously popular podcaster whose audience is heavily male.
During their conversation, Rogan told him, "You need to run for president," adding that the country needed someone who was genuinely a good person. All of this has helped put Talarico in a position where he leads by margins generally ranging from one to four percentage points in the polls. It is an advantage no Democrat running for the Senate in Texas has enjoyed in more than 30 years.
But it is also an extraordinarily fragile lead, underscoring just how conservative Texas remains. That reality becomes even more striking when considering the identity of Talarico's opponent, a politician weighed down by scandals and opposed by many within his own party, yet one who still has a very real chance of winning.
Affairs, a confrontation, impeachment and loyalty to Trump
Paxton, 63, was born in North Dakota to a U.S. Air Force officer. He holds a bachelor's degree in psychology, a master's degree in business administration and a law degree. He married Angela Allen, now a member of the Texas Senate, and the couple have four children. Their marriage has become the subject of highly publicized divorce proceedings, which we will return to later.
Paxton began his political career in Texas state government. He was among the politicians who rose to prominence through the Tea Party movement, which emerged in response to Barack Obama's election and laid much of the ideological groundwork for Trumpism. Between 2003 and 2014, Paxton served in the Texas House and Senate before being elected the state's attorney general.
Trump and Paxton at a campaign rally in San Antonio earlier this month, as Republicans pour millions into defending what should have been a safe Senate seat
(Photo: REUTERS/Evan Vucci)
He quickly became a Republican star who waged an aggressive legal campaign against Democratic administrations. He filed dozens of lawsuits against the Obama and Biden administrations, particularly over immigration, environmental regulations and the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare. He took an uncompromising position against abortion rights and strongly supported gun ownership.
After the 2020 presidential election, Paxton led a legal challenge seeking to overturn Joe Biden's victory. He also spoke at the January 6, 2021 rally in Washington where Trump addressed supporters before a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol. All of this made Paxton extremely popular with Trump, who has repeatedly praised his loyalty and recently said that Paxton had stood by him more than almost anyone else. That loyalty paid off in this year's Republican primary, when Trump endorsed him against incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
Throughout his tenure as attorney general, Paxton has been dogged by scandals. As early as 2015, his first year in office, he faced securities fraud charges stemming from allegations that he misled investors. The criminal case dragged on for nearly a decade. In 2024, he reached a pretrial agreement requiring community service, legal ethics training and nearly $300,000 in restitution, without admitting wrongdoing.
The criminal charges were formally dismissed in 2025 after prosecutors said he had fulfilled the agreement's terms. The most sensational scandal surrounding Paxton involved an extramarital relationship with a woman named Laura Olson. What began as a private marital matter developed into a major legal and political controversy.
According to testimony from former senior officials in his office, Paxton allegedly arranged for a political donor, real estate developer Nate Paul, to employ Olson and, in return, used his public office to help Paul with legal matters. In May 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House voted to impeach Paxton on allegations including abuse of office and bribery. He was temporarily suspended, but in September of that year the state Senate acquitted him, allowing him to return to office.
Trump supporters at a rally in San Antonio. Many remain less enthusiastic about Paxton himself
(Photo: Mandel NGAN / AFP)
Last year, reports emerged that Paxton had been involved in another relationship, this time with Christian influencer Tracy Duhon. An American tourist reported an encounter in London, alleging that Paxton physically confronted him and attempted to seize his phone after the tourist photographed him walking with Duhon.
Paxton's wife, Angela, had publicly stood by him throughout years of criminal investigations and even sat in the chamber during his impeachment trial, when details of his infidelity were revealed. But last year, after 38 years of marriage, she formally filed for divorce. Nevertheless, this month she appeared in a campaign advertisement urging voters to support the entire Republican ticket, without directly mentioning her estranged husband's name.
No-meat campaigning and a nonbinary God: ‘California doesn't need a third senator’
Paxton is popular with relatively few figures in the Republican establishment, and resentment over his victory against Cornyn, who is also well-liked by many Democrats in Congress, has produced a steady stream of leaks from private conversations, revelations about past romantic relationships and even mockery of his physical appearance.
An injury he suffered as a child left his right eyelid permanently drooping. Yet the Republican Party is still investing everything it can to save him. Trump has already visited Texas three times in recent weeks, and there is every reason to believe he will return before Election Day. Republicans might be able to live with losing ground in the midterms, as virtually every governing party does. But losing Texas is something they cannot afford.
Trump's Truth Social post mocking Talarico by comparing him to Alfred E. Neuman, the mascot of the satirical magazine Mad
The Republican campaign has already shown early signs of success. Throughout the race, Talarico has found himself defending statements from his past that Paxton's campaign has repeatedly highlighted as evidence that he is concealing his true political views. Among them are remarks he made in 2021, when he said that God was masculine, feminine and everything in between, describing God as nonbinary.
In another exchange, he argued that modern science recognized six biological sexes rather than simply male and female, referring to chromosomal variations. Paxton has seized on the remarks, dubbing him "Six-Gender Jimmy." At one rally, Paxton declared, "California already has two senators. It doesn't need a third," suggesting that Talarico would represent the values of California's liberal left rather than conservative Texas.
The false claim that Talarico is a vegan also stems from remarks he made in 2022, when he argued that Americans should reduce their meat consumption and described his campaign for reelection to the Texas House as a "non-meat" campaign. In an interview with CBS News earlier this year, Talarico sought to distance himself from some of the statements he made just a few years ago, acknowledging that he regretted certain remarks and that others had "missed the mark."
He accused Paxton of deliberately circulating embarrassing clips taken out of context to distract voters from his record of corruption. Asked whether he still believed there were six biological sexes, Talarico replied, "I know there are two sexes, men and women." He added that a small percentage of people have chromosomal variations and emphasized that they deserve dignity and respect.
Talarico at a campaign rally in San Marcos this week, as he seeks to distance himself from controversial statements made earlier in his political career
(Photo: AP Photo/Eric Gay)
And yet, as the campaign enters its final stretch, Trump already sounds as though he is preparing to shift the blame if Paxton loses. In a lengthy post on Truth Social on Thursday, he accused Republican Senator Cornyn, whom Trump himself helped defeat in the primary, and veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove, one of Trump's most prominent critics within the party, of doing everything they could to prevent Paxton's victory.
Trump described Talarico as a radical left-wing lunatic, calling him "James TalaFREAKO" and "the ANTITHESIS of Texas Values." He went on to argue that any Paxton defeat would be the fault of Cornyn, Rove and other weak, ineffective Republican political operatives who had opposed him throughout his career.