Polls show U.S. President Donald Trump’s popularity falling among Americans following the war with Iran and the surge in gasoline prices it triggered, but he continues to maintain a firm grip on the Republican Party.
That was evident in Louisiana’s weekend primary, where veteran Sen. Bill Cassidy, who has served more than a decade in the Senate and was one of the few Republicans to vote to convict Trump at the end of his first term after the 2021 Capitol riot, was defeated.
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Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, US President Donald Trump
(Photo: Luke Johnson / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP, REUTERS / Jonathan Ernst)
But Trump’s control will face another major test Tuesday in Kentucky, where he hopes Republicans will oust Rep. Thomas Massie, who opposes the war with Iran, supported the release of the Epstein files and opposes military aid to Israel.
The Kentucky primary has become the most expensive House race in history, with more than $32 million spent. A significant share of the advertising against Massie has been funded by pro-Israel donors.
Primaries are being held now and in the coming weeks in both major parties, Republican and Democratic, to determine their nominees for the Nov. 3 congressional elections. Those elections are part of the midterms, held every four years midway through a president’s term and widely seen as a referendum on the incumbent’s performance.
All 435 seats in the House, the lower chamber of Congress, are up for election. House members serve two-year terms. One-third of the Senate’s 100 seats are also on the ballot. Senators serve six-year terms.
Republicans currently hold a slim House majority, with 218 seats to Democrats’ 212. Five seats are vacant. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Against the backdrop of high cost of living and the war with Iran, which is unpopular among Americans, Republicans fear losing control of at least one chamber, if not both.
Trump scored a victory over the weekend when his efforts to defeat Cassidy in the Louisiana primary succeeded. The move was seen as retaliation for Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump in his Senate impeachment trial at the end of his first term, after Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in a failed attempt to block certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory. Trump continues to reject that victory, claiming that it was the result of widespread fraud.
Trump’s party: ‘If you try to destroy him, you’re going to lose’
Cassidy, a physician by trade, had served two consecutive Senate terms since 2015 and was seeking a third. But he placed only third in the primary, with 25% of the vote, far behind Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow, who won 45%. She will advance to next month’s decisive runoff against the second-place finisher, former Rep. John Fleming, also a Trump supporter, who received 28%.
Trump celebrated Cassidy’s defeat. In a post Sunday on Truth Social, he wrote: “His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!”
Cassidy did not mention Trump by name in his concession speech, but alluded to Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen.
“When you participate in democracy, sometimes it doesn’t turn out the way you want it to,” Cassidy said. “But you don’t pout. You don’t whine. You don’t claim the election was stolen... you don’t manufacture some excuse. You thank the voters for the privilege of representing the state or the country for as long as you’ve had that privilege, and that’s what I’m doing right now.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, a key Trump ally, told NBC on Sunday that Cassidy’s defeat showed how strong Trump remains in the Republican Party. He said he was confident Massie would also lose Tuesday’s primary because of his clash with the president.
“Bill Cassidy lost because he tried to destroy Trump. Massie’s going to lose because he’s trying to destroy [Trump’s] agenda,” Graham said. “You can disagree with President Trump, but if you try to destroy him, you’re going to lose because this is the party of Donald Trump.”
Massie has served in Congress since 2012. He has repeatedly angered Trump by opposing legislation the president promoted, including his flagship tax cut plan. Massie was also among the leaders of legislation that forced the administration to release investigative files in the Jeffrey Epstein case, which has cast a heavy shadow over Trump over the past year.
Massie is also among the most prominent, though still few, Republicans who oppose aid to Israel. He has criticized the war with Iran and the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Massie faces Ed Gallrein, the Trump-backed Republican challenger, a farmer and former Navy SEAL. In a lengthy post Monday night ahead of the primary, Trump urged voters in Massie’s Kentucky district to oust him and support Gallrein.
In a Truth Social post Monday, Trump called Massie “weak and pathetic,” accused him of “making life very easy for the Radical Left,” and added: “must be thrown out of office, ASAP! He is the Worst ‘Republican’ Congressman in History, voting against Tax Cuts, the Wall, Law Enforcement, and in favor of the Transgender Mutilization of our Children, Men playing in Women’s Sports, and so many more horrible things.”
A ‘referendum’ on the power of the pro-Israel lobby
Pro-Israel donors and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) have also mobilized against Massie. A total of $32 million has been spent on the campaign, a record for a House primary.
Massie opposes military aid to Israel and has joined anti-Israel lawmakers such as Rep. Ilhan Omar in opposing symbolic pro-Israel resolutions, including statements of support after the Hamas-led Oct. 7 massacre and condemnation of Iran’s first attack in April 2024.
He said the measures were “meaningless” and opposed them partly because they included language equating anti-Zionism with antisemitism. He denies allegations that he is antisemitic and has warned against “trying to equate criticism of the policies of Benjamin Netanyahu with antisemitism.”
Massie has described the race as a test of Israel’s ability to influence decision-making in Washington.
“It’s a referendum, really, unfortunately. It’s turned into whether Israel gets to buy seats in Congress. And what they found out is that my seat is really expensive,” he said over the weekend.
“I’ve never seen Great Britain, Australia, or even Germany play in our elections here in the United States, but Israel gets so much from the United States. It’s a one-sided relationship. They get us to be their proxies in wars that they want against their enemies. They give us military assistance. They gave us technology. They get our bombs. They get our tax dollars. I think it’s a very one-sided relationship. At least with NATO, we pretend that they would come to our aid someday if we needed it, and even that’s a ruse.”
In an interview Sunday with ABC, Massie was asked about those remarks and explicitly accused Jewish American billionaires and major Republican donors Miriam Adelson and Paul Singer of funding the campaign against him.
“That’s where all the money comes from, and it will be a referendum on foreign policy — whether Israel gets to dictate that by bullying members of Congress,” Massie said. “And I am the one they haven’t been able to bully, so they're putting all the brunt, the force on me.”
He said his opponents were “desperate,” adding, “That's why the president is losing sleep and tweeting about this.”
Massie says he is leading in polls, though surveys show a close race against Gallrein. One poll showed Gallrein ahead, 48% to 43%, while another released over the weekend showed Massie with a 1-point lead.
The pro-Israel lobby’s heavy spending has made the race, in the eyes of analysts, not only a test of Trump’s power in the Republican Party but also a significant test of support for Israel among U.S. conservatives. That support has eroded in recent years, especially among young people.
According to a Gallup poll last month, 58% of Republicans overall still have a favorable view of Israel, compared with 41% who have an unfavorable view. But among Republicans ages 18 to 49, 57% now view Israel unfavorably, up from 50% in last year’s survey.
United Democracy Project, an AIPAC fundraising group that has contributed millions to the campaign against Massie, said the reason is that he is “the most anti-Israel Republican in the House.”
Patrick Dorton, a spokesman for the group, acknowledged the race is competitive and that the effort to oust Massie could fail. “It’s always hard to defeat incumbents,” Dorton said. “But we think there’s an opportunity here.”
Gabe Groisman, a Florida Republican who is not involved in the primary, told Politico that defeating Massie is critical to maintaining support for Israel in the Republican camp.
“It’s super important to build and keep a wall, and let those [Israel-critical] voices remain outside voices and not inside voices on the floor making policy and impacting policy in Washington,” he said.
One operative involved in the campaign against Massie offered a similar message, telling Politico anonymously: “Other ambitious politicians might look at this race and think ‘gee, that’s a pretty risky approach, maybe lining up with Tucker [Carlson] and Massie isn’t actually great politics.’ Sane incumbents try to avoid primaries, and incumbents who follow Tucker off the cliff are going to get them.”
The operative was referring to Massie’s recent appearance on Carlson’s podcast. Carlson has become an especially critical voice on Israel in the conservative camp and has been accused of antisemitism.