Missed opportunities: Israel’s negotiation failures in Lebanon and Gaza

Opinion: Failure to secure strategic gains leaves Israel vulnerable, Netanyahu’s handling of negotiations is criticized as Hezbollah and Hamas exploit gaps in agreements, forcing Israel to rely on US mediation to address collapsing arrangements on both fronts

Israel’s agreements in Lebanon and Gaza are on the verge of collapse. In truth, both situations could have been avoided if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had handled the negotiations differently—leveraging Israel’s achievements and bargaining power without undermining the agreements.
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Gazans crossing the Netzarim Corridor
(Photo: EYAD BABA)
In Lebanon, after 60 days of the agreement, Israeli forces were supposed to withdraw to the border. However, they did not, and rightly so. According to military sources, the Lebanese army failed to sufficiently "clear" areas controlled by Hezbollah, particularly in the eastern sector. In some areas, the Lebanese army even retreated. As a result, early this morning, Hezbollah began provoking confrontations. The organization sent civilians and operatives to homes in villages such as Marjayoun, Al-Khiam, Ayta ash-Sha'b, and others. Reports from Lebanon indicate 22 fatalities and dozens of injuries due to Israeli fire during the clashes. Among the dead, according to these reports, was a Lebanese soldier, though this claim is still under investigation.
At present, Hezbollah is not issuing official threats but is taking practical actions. While it is not the same Hezbollah as before the war, it is attempting to rebuild its capabilities. The first area where it will try to demonstrate its recovery is its stronghold in southern Lebanon. Israel should not be concerned with this; it must focus on maintaining its security interests, which were inexplicably neglected during the signing of the agreement. At the time of the agreement, it was already noted that there were significant gaps, the largest being the failure to establish a buffer zone on the Lebanese side of the border. Such a zone would have prohibited entry to Lebanese civilians and, certainly, Hezbollah operatives.
Local leaders along the northern border repeatedly warned that this was a mistake, emphasizing they would struggle to bring residents back to their homes if Hezbollah operatives, disguised as civilians, resumed roaming freely just hundreds of yards from Metula. Their frustration is justified: Israel achieved a significant military victory over Hezbollah, and it was expected that the government would translate this into a political achievement in the agreement signed with Lebanon under U.S. mediation. This was Netanyahu’s major failure—succumbing to American pressure, which at the time came from the Biden administration, before the Trump era.
Gazans going north
An Israeli source stated that the American administration understood the need to extend the period during which Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon. However, there was an explicit request to do so in a coordinated manner to create legitimacy within the international community. Additionally, it was decided to extend the American mechanism until the situation stabilized and the understandings were fully implemented.
According to military sources, Hezbollah is sending people toward the border. Israeli forces have demonstrated determination but clarified that preventive actions will target only organized preparations for hostile activity, not every Hezbollah operative. This is important for northern residents to understand.
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In Gaza, the situation differs in facts but is similar in terms of missed opportunities. Images from the Netzarim Corridor show tens of thousands of Gazans moving northward, underscoring the corridor’s critical importance to Hamas during negotiations for the release of hostages. For this reason, it should not have been conceded during the second phase of the deal but rather retained for more advanced stages. Israel paid the price of an entire agreement without receiving all it was due. Once the corridor was opened, Hamas gained the ability to commit further violations—just as it recently did by failing to release Arbel Yehoud.
In this case, American pressure came from the Trump administration, which is essential to cooperate with fully. However, even with them, Israel should have insisted on an agreement stipulating that the most valuable bargaining chip would only be relinquished after securing the majority of the hostages. Now, in both arenas, Israel once again finds itself relying on the goodwill of the Americans. On one hand, they have allowed the use of certain leverage, but on the other hand, they are strategically limiting Israel.
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