Despite Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's refusal to elaborate on his attempt to assist in mediations between Russia and Ukraine, it seems that in the past few days the messages from the Kremlin have been pretty clear.
But do these messages express the true desire of Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in negotiations, or are they just a diversion? An attempt to stall until the next brutal attack that will penetrate the big cities in Ukraine - Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa - and will determine this campaign? The answers to these question lie only in Putin's own mind.
However, unlike the U.S. attempt to present Putin as a raging, paranoid, and distant leader, the Israeli delegation to the Kremlin said he showed the same cold and sharp rationalism that has always defined him.
But, he is definitely in "war mode," unwilling to compromise, and the next phases of this "special operation" of his are clear to him as broad daylight.
Bennett's meditation attempt, according to European sources, began after the visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Israel last week. Scholz, who has already been tagged as light-handed when facing the Russians, has a lot to lose if engaged in direct contact with Putin, who in Western eyes is seen for what he really is - a war criminal.
In that respect, Israel's premier is a great candidate to talk to the Kremlin. Israel is not formally a part of Western Europe, it has strong interests in keeping good relations with Moscow because of the Jewish communities in both Ukraine and Russia and the security coordination between Israelis and Russians on Syria.
But the question remains. Is it really worth the trouble for Israel to be involved in this? As of last night, the United States hasn't officially said anything on this matter, which is strange and raises suspicion.
Perhaps that's why Foreign Minister Yair Lapid left for Latvia early on Monday for an unscheduled visit, to speak directly with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
It is safe to assume that he will want to make sure that Israel is in line with the Americans on the Ukraine-Russia issue.
Bennett himself said on Sunday, that his trip to Moscow had received the "blessing" of both U.S. and Ukraine. And we better hope that is exactly the case.
Putin's messages to the West in the last few days have been very specific - he wants the so-called "denazification" of Ukraine. This is a Russian attempt to sell to the world the image of Ukraine as a fascist country reminiscent of the World War II-era when many Ukrainians collaborated with the Nazis.
This could mean the Kremlin is not interested in removing President Volodymyr Zelensky from power or making him disappear.
At the same time, the Russian television, the government, and Putin - all engaged in slamming the Ukrainian educational program, claiming it sanctifies anti-Russian radical heroes from the first World War, and name the streets in Ukrainian cities after them.
In fact, the Russians claim that there is a cultural and historic hostility towards them - one that is contrary to Putin's vision of Ukraine and Russia as "one nation" - and that is why they wish to achieve order and prevent any anti-Russian incitement.
Putin's second goal is the de-militarization of Ukraine. The Russian leader does not only demand that Ukraine refrains from joining NATO, despite knowing full well it was not going to happen anytime soon, but also be stripped of its weapons.
In the West, such demands are typically seen as a cover for a simple desire to end Ukraine's sovereignty. But Russia said that was not the case, saying they only want to rid Ukraine of "specific missiles that threaten us".
What that may mean exactly? What does Putin really want to do with his neighbor's military? One can only guess. Bennett, however, knows the answer to that question since it was probably discussed at the meeting between the Israeli and Russian leaders.
But in the end, there are simpler and clearer issues. How can the next phase of the invasion, which is expected to be much deadlier, be prevented? In other words, we should be asking what is the right path to prevent escalation rather than how to achieve peace?
Intelligence agencies in the West continue to believe that Putin is determined to occupy the entire Ukraine (as of the weekend).They say he is determined to fight more and more, that they see no signs of him willing to stop, quite the opposite. The Ukrainian resistance convinced Putin that he should make them suffer even more.
I don't know if this assessment is correct, but so far the Western intelligence was right about the Ukrainian crisis.
Bennett's mediation campaign, despite his truly noble goal, continues to be a high-stakes gamble with a potentially devastating outcome.
The Lapid-Blinken meeting will be critical in this context; If Blinken will express even the slightest disapproval of Israel's moves thus far, Jerusalem should make an immediate U-turn away from the mediation attempt and start with a quick assessment of damage.
First published: 13:04, 03.07.22