As he has in recent weeks, President Donald Trump posted a series of messages this morning (U.S. time) on his social media platform Truth Social, again threatening Iran against the backdrop of the extended ceasefire he announced — for now without setting a new deadline.
Trump wrote that he had ordered, after doing so last month, strikes on Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. He also addressed reports of divisions within Iran’s leadership. His post came shortly after he shared a screenshot of a tweet by conservative American commentator Marc Thiessen, which read: “If there are two factions in Iran, one that wants a deal and one that doesn’t, let’s kill the ones that don’t want a deal.”
Trump also shared a clip from a Fox News interview with Thiessen, in which he repeated that message, and later shared an opinion column Thiessen published in The Washington Post, where he likewise urged Trump to resume the war and eliminate Iranian officials opposed to a deal with the United States. Trump shared a link to the column, titled “Trump doesn’t need a deal to get what he wants,” and wrote: “Very true!!!”
In the column itself — it is unclear whether Trump read it or only the headline — Thiessen argues that “remnants of the Iranian regime” now believe the U.S. president needs a deal more than they do, particularly after Trump extended the ceasefire on Tuesday. “They are betting that Trump, under political and economic pressure at home, does not want to resume the war,” Thiessen writes, stressing that the president must change that perception.
Although the White House rejected reports that Trump extended the ceasefire by only three to five days, Thiessen adds that if Iran does not present a “serious counterproposal” by the end of that period — during which the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush is also expected to arrive in the region — Trump should resume the military operation “and begin with strikes against Iran’s recalcitrant leaders.”
Thiessen further argued that Iran needs a deal more than Trump does, stressing the significance of the naval blockade aimed at cutting off Tehran’s oil export revenue. He said Iran is nearing its storage limit for crude oil, with only about two weeks before capacity is exhausted, after which it would be forced to halt production — a step he warned would cause lasting damage to its oil industry, citing a former U.S. Treasury official. He added that 51% of Iran’s oil revenues are directed to its military, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
He described the Iranian regime as nearing a breaking point but not yet defeated, noting that despite U.S. and Israeli strikes that have reduced Iran’s offensive capabilities, the ceasefire took effect while Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, still had 14 days remaining to complete a list of targets assigned at the outset of Operation Rising Lion.
Thiessen then outlined a proposed course of action for Trump, suggesting he allow those remaining two weeks for continued military operations while maintaining the blockade to intensify economic pressure. He called for coordinated action with Israel against Iranian leaders opposed to a deal, implementation of a plan to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping except Iranian vessels, and the presentation of a final ultimatum to Iran’s leadership. That ultimatum, he said, should include the threat of destroying Kharg Island — a critical hub through which most of Iran’s oil exports pass — a move he argued would severely weaken Iran’s military.
According to Thiessen, such a two-week escalation, combined with the blockade, would significantly strengthen Trump’s negotiating position. If Iran still refused to comply, he said, Trump could declare victory without reaching a deal and effectively signal support for efforts by the Iranian public to topple the regime.
It is unclear whether Trump read that “playbook” in the column he shared, but in the Fox News clip he posted, Thiessen reiterated its main points, and it is highly likely the president watched that segment in full. In the past, such shares have signaled potential courses of action: hours before announcing a naval blockade on Iran, Trump shared an opinion column on his platform calling for that step.
The president has sent mixed messages, in recent days signaling the possibility of renewed war while also saying he has “all the time in the world” to reach a deal. At the same time, he has vowed to continue the naval blockade, which he has described as a “tremendous success” that denies Iran about $500 million a day in oil export revenue.
The U.S. military last night pushed back on reports that, despite the blockade, a significant number of ships had managed to slip out and smuggle Iranian oil.